Submitted by Hank Goldberg on Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 4:03 PM
From, “Hammerin’ Hank” Goldberg
Thursday, June 27, 2019
My juices are flowing. I can’t wait. The 2019 Saratoga Meet is about to get started. And for those of you who have been with me for any number of years knows, this is my time of the year.
The meet begins a week earlier this year, on Thursday July 11 and runs through Labor day, Monday, September 2. There is a new schedule this year, with racing 5 days a week instead of 6. Both Mondays and Tuesdays will be dark with the exception of closing day.
One thing this will definitely mean is that the individual races that ill be run swill have more horses per race, the fields will therefore be more competitive and the payoffs even higher…if of course you can FIND THE WINNERS AT THE RIGHT VALUE. And that is what today’s article is about…VALUE.
Let me begin today by telling you something you and just about every other Saratoga bettor knows…
EVERY HORSE IS A SHIPPER…EVERY OUTFIT LOOKING TO SCORE
The key to my ANNUAL SPA SUCCESS is that Saratoga is NO horse’s home track. Every horse is a shipper. The average player has no idea how a horse from California, Kentucky or Florida will run on this surface. And those are the bigger venues. Imagine the horses that ship in from Laurel, Monmouth, Delaware, Arlington, Woodbine and other locations.
In addition, there are more juvenile first time starters per race than at any other time of year.
As a result, Saratoga isn’t just a “GRAVEYARD OF FAVORITES” but a “GRAVEYARD OF BANKROLL!”
And the numbers prove it! Because so many uninformed bettors lose, informed bettors cash the biggest payoffs in the game! And my “informed bettors” win because I not only know how to handicap these horses, but I know how to isolate and back runners who present VALUE.
PUBLIC BETTING PATTERNS YEAR IN AND YEAR OUT ARE THE KEY TO FINDING VALUE.
Let’s cut right to the chase. VALUE is probably the most overused word in handicapping. Countless handicapping manuals use the word in their title. Pundits and on air handicappers from TVG to OTB’s to NBC’s coverage of the Triple crown hand the mic to “handicapper” after handicapper who tell you the key in “this race” is finding the value.
The only thing they don’t ever follow through on is telling you what they mean by VALUE. And they don’t tell you because they have never done the in depth studies that not only define it…but use it productively in their handicapping.
SO WHAT DO I KNOW ABOUT VALUE THAT THE PUBLIC DOESN’T…
I know “How” the public bets. I know hat those betting patterns reveal about the Value of their betting and how playing “against” those patterns gives me and my players a big edge. In fact, I have so many angles in this regard that I could write a book about it. But that would be kind of foolish because in addition to being a nationally known handicapper, I am a full time bettor. So why would I give my secrets away to0 anyone but myself and my clients?
However, if you are not yet a client, here’s what I’ll do. I’ll show you one of those “anti-public-betting-pattern” angles that gives me a huge edge when I approach the daily racing card at Saratoga. And let me state right off the top that the statistics I am about to show you from last year at Saratoga, statistics based on how the public bet, are numbers that are universal from one year to the next for the simple reason that the huge pool of bettors from one year to the next stays intact. And they do not change their habits.
LET THE PUBLIC HAVE THE ODDS-ON FAVORITES AND JUVENILE FAVORITES, THEY WILL DRAIN YOUR WALLET.
Before I get into some numbers I want you to understand that just about very bettor will tell you don’t bet Odds-On Favorites. Well, if these professed anti Odds-On bettors don’t wager on them, how come there are so many Odds-On Favorites?
As to the juveniles. Often the opposite comes into play. Since so many juveniles at Saratoga are making their career debut or second or third career start, the general consensus is, there is little form to handicap with, so it pays to follow the tote board and back the favorite. I’ll show you why this belief produces nothing stronger than or weaker than the overall national performance of all favorites.
So, let’s look at the numbers and get you on your way.
First off, that handle “Graveyard Of Favorites.” Last year it once again held true as only 31.1% of favorites won. But more to the point, if you are looking to the field of 68.9% of non-favorites that won you were in pretty good straights because 41.4% of the winners paid double digits. Are you beginning to see a pattern?
LET’S LOOK AT TWO ANGLES
My first VALUE STATEMENT is that you should never get sucked in to a race where an Odds-On favorite is involved. The positive theory, born out by years of my charting, shows that if you are seeking Value, you will have a tougher time finding it in these races than in any other.
Last year of the 405 races run at Saratoga, there were 66 with an Odds-On-Favorite. 32 of those 66 were winners. That is a 48.5% winning wager. But two things are in play here. One…even at that percentage you are of course and R.O.I. loser. Two…if you bet against the Odds-On horse in that race you only have a 51.5% chance of finding a value winner. Weigh that against the overall 31% winning favorites mark, keeping in mind that this number is even less when not weighted by the Odds-On favorites and it is clear where you are better positioned.
AS TO JUVENILE FAVORITES. Let’s go back to that statement about the general public’s perception that “the tote board is where the best information is regarding juveniles.” Guess what…it isn’t so. Last year there were 75 juvenile races. 25 of them were won by the favorites. That is 33%, just a few points below the overall national average for winning favorites. So much for “the smart money.”
In summary, you need to understand that these are just two pieces of very basic information that I use regarding the public betting patters (remember, you are playing against the public not the horses.) And of course you need to understand that these handles on the public betting patterns are just the beginning of the handicapping process. But they are a huge beginning.
You can take this short outline and run with it. Or, you can take from it that maybe you see in my investigations into handicapping that I have a very unique outlook…an outlook which has produced years of publicly visible winning…an outlook you just might want to take advantage of.
CHECK OUT MY 2019 WINNING SARATOGA SERVICE RIGHT HERE
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Let’s get Started,
“HAMMERIN’ HANK” GOLDBERG