Submitted by Jim Hurley on Thursday, October 19, 2017 at 1:52 PM
Beginning today and continuing until the Breeders’ Cup on Friday, Nov. 3 and Saturday, Nov. 4 we will take a look in capsule form of the thirteen 2017 Races.
BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF…HISTORY SAYS WINNERS COME FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD.
Before I begin the Capsule for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf it is noteworthy that this will be the first time ever that this race (as well as all BC races) will be run at Del Mar. The race is contested at 1 Mile on the grass course. The youngsters will complete one turn around the oval with the starting gate a few yards in front of the finish line a bit past mid-stretch. It is uniquely different from the layout any of the competitors has experienced in their careers.
The only exception from the group of what is (as of this publication time) 15 prospective runners, is a colt named ENCUMBERED, who was two-for-two over the Del Mar Grass Course during the summer meet, including a victory in the ungraded $100K Del Mar Turf Stakes. He also broke his maiden over the course 5 weeks earlier and each win was at the mile distance.
(WHAT DO RECENT PAST EDITIONS TELL US)
Over the last seven years the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf has proven as consistently inconsistent as you might expect from more than a few of the Breeders’ Cup Races.
First and foremost this is a juvenile race. That means youngsters that despite racing in this premier two-year old grass race of the year, are still learning what the game is all about. Dramatic improvements happen, as do regressions.
That being said, since preparation and forward progress is a method many of the top outfits in the world hold to, a look at the last seven years of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile justify looking at certain consistencies. The only difficulty for the bettor being, these consistencies support many more than a few contenders.
First let’s take a look at the Top 4 Finishers from the last 7 BC Juvenile Turf contests.
Listed are the year and location, followed by the winner through Superfecta finisher, the prices for each combination, the previous race, track, date of the race and finish in that race.
(2016) – Santa Anita
Oscar Performance – WON $15.20 – Pilgrim S. (Belmont) – 10/1 – WON
Lancaster Bomber – Ex. $118.00 – Dewhurst S. (Newmarket) – 10/8 – 2nd
Good Samaritan – Tri. $501.80 – Summer S. (Woodbine) – 9/18 – WON
Ticonderoga – Super $10,683.80 – Bourbon S. (Keeneland) – 10/9 – 2nd
Trainers In Order: Brian Lynch…Aiden O’Brien…Bill Mott…Chad Brown.
(2015) – Keeneland
Hit It A Bomb – WON $16.40 – Star Appeal S. (Dundalk) – 10/9 – WON
Airoforce – Ex. $166.80 – Bourbon S. (Keeneland) – 10/4 – WON
Birchwood – Tri. $1,471.00 – Vincent O’Brien S. (Curragh) – 9/13 – 3rd
Conquest Daddyo – Super $15,166.20 – Summer S. (Woodbine) – 9/12 – WON
Trainers In Order: Aiden O’Brien…Mark Casse…Richard Fahey…Mark Casse.
(2014) - Santa Anita
Hootenanny – WON $14.00 – Rollicking S.* (Pimlico) – 5/16 – 3rd
Luck Of The Kitten – Ex. $100.00 – Zuma Beach S. (Santa Anita) – 10-5 – WON
Daddy D T – Tri. $1,691.20 – Front Runner S. (Santa Anita) – 9/27 – 5th
Conquest Typhoon – Super $$14,885 – Grey S. (Woodbine) – 10/5 – 2nd
Trainers In Order: Wesley Ward…Wesley Ward…John Sadler…Mark Casse.
(2013) – Santa Anita
Outstrip – WON $14.00 – Dewhurst S. (Newmarket) – 10/12 – 3rd
Giovanni Boldini – Ex. $46.20 – Star Appeal S. (Dundalk) – 10/11 – WON
Bobby’s Kitten – Tri. $143.80 – Pilgrim S. (Belmont) – 10-6 – WON
Bon Accord – Super $2,406.20 – Bourbon (Keeneland) – 10/6 – 3rd
Trainers In Order: Charles Appleby…Aiden O’Brien…Chad Brown…Antonio Sano.
(2012) – Santa Anita
George Vancouver – WON $20.60 – Dewhurst S. (Newmarket) – 10/14 – 3rd
Noble Tune – Ex. $125.60 – Pilgrim (Belmont) – 10/8 – WON
Balance The Books – Tri. $1,106.20 – Bourbon (Keeneland) – 10/7 – WON
Dundonnell – Super $4,705.20 – Champagne S. (Doncaster) – 9/15 – 2nd
Trainers In Order: Aiden O’Brien…Chad Brown…Chad Brown…Roger Charlton.
(2011) – Churchill Downs
Wrote – WON $25.20 – Royal Lodge S. (Newmarket) – 9/24 – 3rd
Excaper – Ex. $964.00 – Grey Stakes (Woodbine) – 10/9 – 4th
Faraajj – Tri. $8,131.20 – Tattersall Stakes (Newmarket) -9/22 – 2nd
Lucky Chappy – Super $90,140.40 – Bourbon (Keeneland) – 10/9 – 3rd
Trainers In Order: Aiden O’Brien…Ian Black…Roger Varien…Graham Motion.
(2010) – Churchill Downs
Pluck – WON $14.80 – Summer S. (Woodbine) – 9/18 – WON
Soldat – Ex. $72.00 – Pilgrim S. (Belmont) – 10/3 – 2nd
Wilcox Inn – Tri. $1,393.00 – Bourbon (Keeneland) – 10/9 – 3rd
Madman Diaries – Super $11,088.60 – Sapling S.* (Monmouth) – 9/4 – WON
Trainers In Order: Todd Pletcher…Kiaran McLaughlin…Michael Stidham…Wesley Ward.
*Hootenanny and Madman Diaries had their final race before the BC Juvenile Turf in a dirt sprint stakes.
A quick scan of that above listing reveals a number of consistencies.
*There is a repetition of last out preps which have sent runners to finish in the Superfecta. This is a big deal since every BC juvenile Turf since 2010 has had a full complement of 14 runners with the exception of 2013 which had 13.
Dewhurst Stakes (Newmarket) – 2 Wins, 1 Second
Exiting the Dewhurst this year is U.S. NAVY FLAG (1st)
Pilgrim Stakes (Belmont) – 1 Win, 2 Seconds, 1 Third
Exiting the Pilgrim Stakes this year are SEABHAC (1st) and VOTING CONTROL (2nd)
Star Appeal Stakes (Dundalk) – 1 Win, 1 Second
At this time it appears there are no last out Star Appeal Stakes runners.
Summer Stakes (Woodbine) – 1 Win, 2 Thirds
Exiting the Summer Stakes are HEMP HEMP HURRAY (1st) and UNTAMED domain (2nd)
Bourbon Stakes (Keeneland) – 1 Second, 2 Thirds, 3 Fourths
Exiting the Bourbon Stakes are FLAMEAWAY (1st) and TAP DADDY (3rd)…though it is noteworthy that this year’s Bourbon Stakes was washed off the turf to a sloppy main track and while TAP DADDY broke his maiden on Turf, FLAMEAWAY has never been on grass in 4 career starts.
Grey Stakes (Woodbine) – 1 Second, 1 Fourth.
At this time it appears there are no last out Grey Stakes runners.
*In the last 7 years trainer Aiden O’Brien has shipped from Europe and has three winners and two seconds and his wins have been at Santa Anita, Keeneland and Churchill Downs.
In 2017 O’Brien has a pair of prospective entrants in SIOUX NATION and U.S. NAVY FLAG. The former is a Scat Daddy Colt who has won 3 of 7 career races, including a Group 1, though has never been beyond 6 ½ furlongs. The latter is a War Front Colt who has won his last 3 racing from 6-7 furlongs on grass. The last two were Group 1 events and the last was in the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket, which has been an influential final European prep. If he runs, U.S. NAVY FLAG will receive much attention.
*Other trainers who have had multiple runners in the Superfecta over the last 7 years are:
Wesley Ward – 1 Win, 1 Second, 1 Fourth.
Ward, who ran 1-2 in 2014 with HOOTENANNY and LUCK OF THE KITTEN figures to be represented by HEMP HEMP HURRAY
Chad Brown – 1 second, 2 thirds, 1 fourth.
Brown figures to be represented in 2017 by VOTING CONTROL
Mark Casse – 1 second, 2 fourths.
Casse figures to be represented in 2017 by FLAMEAWAY.
*There are a pair of well known trainers who have also had multiple runners the last 7 years that have failed to make it into the Superfecta:
Chad Brown – 7
Todd Pletcher – 5
Todd Pletcher last made it into the Superfecta when PLUCK was the WINNER of the 2010 BC Juvenile Turf. He it appears as though will be represented in 2017 by Pilgrim Stakes winner SEABHAC.
Steve Asmussen has only had one BC Juvenile Turf runner since 2010 but figures to be represented in 2017 by the pair of TAP DADDY and SNAPPER SINCLAIR.
I could go on and on, but by now you see what I mean by CONSISTENCIES which create INCONSISTENCIES. One thing to know is that I have already been matching up the hundreds of factors which pare the very good runners down to the excellent runners in this and all the Breeders’ Cup races and I will be ready when November 3rd and 4th arrive.
Make sure to return to these pages every other day from now and right up to the Breeders’ Cup for more information.