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Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 12:55 PM

SARATOGA SHOTS
Previewing The 2017 Meet
Volume 16...Number 2


NO MEET IN THE NATION FEATURES MORE SHIPPERS THAN SARATOGA...WHERE DO THEY COME FROM AND HOW DO THEY PERFORM?

Each year on these pages we show you how the various shippers di the year before at Saratoga.

Over the years these numbers have remained very consistent. Which should not come as a surprise since it is the practice of the more productive barns to rely on a consistent set of operating procedures.

Trainers such as Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown, Kieran McLaughlin, Graham Motion, Mark Casse, Steve Asmussen, Bill Mott, Christophe Clement and Mike Maker have wide spread outfits. While they already have a string in New York they bring in as well their better runners from Churchill, Monmouth, Gulfstream and elsewhere.

However, the shipping game does not only belong to the well-known names. Every year respected but "lesser covered" conditioners quietly settle in and loudly announce themselves.

In the opening week of the 2016 meet shipping trainers wasted little time poking bettors in their complacent ribs.
Russell Cash (Bliss To You $19.60), Dallas Stewart (tale Of Verve $37.40), George Weaver (Majestic Bonnie $26.60) and George Arnold (Derby Champagne $60.00.)

Where do all these shippers come from? Is there one or two locales that provide better prospects than another? Oh that it was
only that easy.

What is important is to know that wagering on shippers is not so much an inclusion game (bet on shippers if the public ignores them) as it is a game of elimination (which locales are significantly over-rated by the public because they are perceived as being better circuits with better horses.)

Today we take a look at where the horses shipped from last year and on the whole, how those locations produced.
Below, by track we list the number of shippers that ran* their last race at that track prior to their first Saratoga race of the meet, how many of those were winners and what was the return on investment based on a $2 wager on each of the horses.

CHURCHILL DOWNS
134 Runners...15 Winners...Average Win Payoff $15.38...13 Beaten Favorites...R.O.I. $1.72

MONMOUTH PARK
113 Runners...11 Winners...Average Win Payoff $10.50...8 Beaten Favorites...R.O.I $1.02

GULFSTREAM PARK
62 Runners...11 Winners...Average Win Payoff $16.65...4 Beaten favorites...R.O.I. $2.98

DELAWARE PARK
54 Runners...5 Winners...Average Win Payoff $22.12...3 Beaten Favorites...R.O.I. $2.05

FINGER LAKES
41 Runners...6 Winners...Average Win Payoff $1.62...2 Beaten favorites...R.O.I. $1.62

PARX
33 Runners...4 Winners...Average Win Payoff $16.08...0 Beaten favorites...R.O.I. $1.88

LAUREL
30 Runners...5 Winners...Average Win Payoff $10.38...1 Beaten favorite...R.O.I. $1.73

PIMLICO
24 Runners...4 Winners...Average Win Payoff $10.60...0 Beaten Favorites...R.O.I. $1.77

WOODBINE
23 Runners...2 Winners...Average Win Payoff $6.05...1 Beaten Favorite...R.O.I. $0.53

ELLIS PARK
18 Runners...2 Winners...Average Win Payoff $32.50...2 Beaten Favorites...R.O.I. $3.61 (This Number is skewed by one of the two winners paying $60.00)

SUFFOLK DOWNS
18 Runners...1 Winner...Average Win Payoff $21.60...0 Beaten favorites...R.O.I. $1.20

ARLINGTON PARK
17 Runners...3 Winners...Average Win Payoff $12.87...3 Beaten Favorites...R.O.I. $2.27

KEENELAND
15 Runners...3 Winners...Average Win Payoff $4.67...3 Beaten Favorites...R.O.I. $0.93

PRESQUE ISLE
13 Runners...0 Winners...0 Beaten favorites

SANTA ANITA
10 Runners...4 Winners...Average Win Payoff $6.93...0 Beaten favorites...R.O.I. $2.77

DEL MAR
8 Runners...1 Winner...Average Win Payoff $25.40...1 Beaten favorite...R.O.I. $3.17 (The Lone Winner was Arrogate who upset the Travers.)

PENN NATIONAL
7 Runners...0 Winners...1 Beaten Favorite

CANTERBURY
3 Runners...1 Winner...Average Win Payoff $5.00...0 Beaten Favorites...R.O.I. $1.67

FAIR GROUNDS
3 Runners...0 Winners...1 Beaten Favorite

LONE STAR
3 Runners...0 Winners...0 Beaten Favorites

MAHONING VALLEY
2 Runners...1 Winner...Average Win Payoff $29.60...0 Beaten Favorites...R.O.I. $14.80

THISTLEDOWN
2 Runners...1 Winner...Average Win Payoff $6.90...1 Beaten favorite...R.O.I. $3.45

MOUNTAINEER
2 Runners...0 Winners...0 Beaten Favorites

KENTUCKY DOWNS
2 Runners...0 Winners...0 Beaten Favorites

OAKLAWN
1 Runner...0 Winners...0 Beaten Favorites

PRAIRIE MEADOWS
1 Runner...0 Winners...0 Beaten Favorites

*It must be noted that there were a few dozen races in which multiple shippers from the same track competed against each other. For statistical purposes that is a double-edged sword. While only one horse can win any given race, multiple horses from one track in the same race also provides more opportunity.

You will also note that we did not include the few dozen shippers from outside North America.

These might seem like a lot of statistics but it does show that there are a number of tracks (some with Plus R.O.I. figures overall and some close to break-even status) that should at least give you enough confidence moving forward if you have other solid reasons for backing a shipper.

As for us, we have been charting these shipping patterns track-by-track, trainer-by-trainer, surface and distance switch by surface and distance switch and so on for decades. And we are here to steer you in the right direction.

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