Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, June 7, 2017 at 3:03 PM
Volume 15 - Number 4
June 7, 2017
YOU WANT TO KNOW HOW GOOD THEY WILL BE AT 12 FURLONGS IN THE BELMONT STAKES...CHECK OUT THEY DO AT 9 FURLONGS
How then does one find the horse that will be within striking distance one mile into the Belmont Stakes...regardless of their past performances? Look how they finished in their last mile and an eight race.
With that in mind let us return to the last 12 Belmont Stakes Winners and note the final 3 furlong time of their last mile and an eight race before the Belmont Stakes.
2016 - Creator - Florida Derby - :36 3/5
2015 - American Pharoah - Arkansas Derby - :37 4/5
2014 - Tonalist - Peter Pan - :37 3/5
2013 - Palace Malice - Blue Grass - :37 1/5
2012 - Union Rags - Florida Derby - :36
2011 - Ruler On Ice - Sunland Derby - :39
2010 - Drosselmeyer - Dwyer - :37 4/5
2009 - Summer Bird - Arkansas Derby - :37 1/5
2008 - Da 'Tara - Barbaro Stakes (1 1/16th Miles) - Final 2 ½ furlongs - :31
2007 - Rags To Riches - Kentucky Oaks - :36 4/5
2006 - Jazil - Wood Memorial - :37 1/5
2005 - Afleet Alex - Arkansas Derby - :36 1/5
One can argue that by using different tracks it is a matter of apples and oranges but the bottom line is, with the exception of Ruler On Ice, who ran a :39 flat at Sunland Park and Da 'Tara, who ran a comparatively acceptable :31 for 2 ½ furlongs, every other Belmont Stakes winner ran the last 3 furlongs of their final 9 furlong prpe in less that :37 4/5.
The 2017 Belmont Stakes contenders who ran their final 3 furlongs in their last mile and an eight prep in under :37 4/5 are:
Classic Empire - Arkansas Derby - :37 1/5
Lookin At Lee - Arkansas Derby - :37
Patch - Louisiana Derby - :37 3/5
Multiplier - Illinois Derby - :35 3/5
Is that alone enough to definitively state that one of those four is going to be the 2017 Belmont Stakes winner. No, but it will give you an idea of who should be within the codified striking distance with a half mile to go...even if horses such as Lookin At Lee and Multiplier are "perceived as closers while Classic Empire and Patch appear to be stalker/presser types. We'll return Thursday with a Horse-By-Horse preview of this year's Belmont Stakes. Make certain you revisit.
Did you know that over the last 10 years of the Belmont Stakes the average win ticket is $29.10, average exacta $286.35; average trifecta $2236.85; average Superfecta $18,490.20.