Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, May 31, 2017 at 2:35 PM
Volume 15 - Number 1
May 31, 2017
BELMONT STAKES - LAST TWO PREPS AND RUNNING STYLE OFTEN LEAVE PUBLIC GUESSING
By the time the public gets to the third leg of the Triple Crown there is often a certain sense of deflation. This is particularly true when, as is the case this year, there is no compelling front runner that the public hooks on to.
In 2017, there is no American Pharoah and no California Chrome. However, it is the contention of this analyst that THERE COULD NOT BE A BETTER SCENARIO than no American Pharoah and no California Chrome. Without that kind of anchor and with the complete turnover of prospects within this year's 3-year old crop, it is very possible we will see a full field of 14 runners in the Belmont Stakes AND results that produce payoffs close to or in excess of the last 10 year averages.
WIN AVG. PAYOUT - $29.10
EXACTA AVG. PAYOUT - $286.35
TRIFECTA AVG. PAYOUT - $2,236.55
SUPERFECTA AVG. PAYOUT - $19,490.20
If that doesn't get your blood boiling, why are you reading this? Over the course of the next 12 days we'll provide you with a constant flow of background constructs with which you can match up the 2017 Belmont Stakes participants. We will begin today by taking a look at the last two races of the last 10 Belmont Stakes winners and will create what will likely appear to be a surprising running style that has proven successful.
LAST 2 PREPS OF THE LAST 10 BELMONT STAKES WINNERS
2016 - Creator - Kentucky Derby - 13th...Arkansas Derby - WIN
2015 - American Pharoah - Preakness Stakes - WIN...Kentucky Derby - WIN
2014 - Tonalist - Peter Pan - WIN...Allowance - 2nd (Gulfstream)
2013 - Palace Malice - Kentucky Derby - 11th...Blue Grass - 2nd
2012 - Union Rags - Kentucky Derby - 7th...Florida Derby - 3rd
2011 - Ruler On Ice - Federico Tesio Stakes - 2nd...Sunland Derby - 3rd
2010 - Drosselmeyer - Dwyer Stakes - 2nd...Louisiana Derby - 3rd
2009 - Summer Bird - Kentucky Derby - 6th...Arkansas Derby - 3rd
2008 - Da 'Tara - Barbaro Stakes - 2nd (Pimlico)...Derby Trial - 5th (Churchill)
2007 - Rags To Riches - Kentucky Oaks - WIN...Santa Anita Oaks - WIN
BELMONT STAKES RUNNING STYLE SCENARIO NOT WHAT YOU MIGHT THINK
Between now and Belmont Stakes Saturday you will hear the same broadcast assumption that has trapped more than one unsuspecting bettor into backing a compromised runner.
What you will hear is very generic. It goes like this, "The way that horse closed in the Kentucky derby and/or Preakness or other prep race, the extra distance of the mile-and-a-half Belmont Stakes will be right up his alley."
Perhaps, but the history of the running scenario says that solid tactical speed horses which are versatile enough to get early position are a much better bet.
From last year, back to 2000, take a look at the placement of the Belmont Stakes winners based and more important, how far off the pace-setters they were with one mile remaining and with a half mile remaining.
2016 - Creator...10th (8 ½)...6th (3 ½)
2015 - American Pharoah - Wire-To-Wire
2014 - Tonalist...3rd (1)...3rd (1)
2013 - Palace Malice...4th (3)...3rd (1/2)
2012 - Union Rags...5th (4)...3rd (3 ½)
2011 - Ruler On Ice...2nd (1 ½)...3rd (1 ½)
2010 - Drosslemeyer...5th (4)...5th (2 ½)
2009 - Summer Bird...6th (4 ½)...9th (6)
2008 - Da 'Tara - Wire-To-Wire
2007 - Rags To Riches...5th (2)...3rd (1 ½)
2006 - Jazil...12th (8 ½)...7th (2 ½)
2005 - Afleet Alex...8th (5 ½)...8th (3 ½)
2004 - Birdstone...5th (3)...4th (5)
2003 - Empire Maker...2nd (1)...2nd (Head)
2002 - Sarava...5th (4)...4th (1)
2001 - Point Given...3rd (1)...Lead
2000 - Commendable...2nd (1/2)...2nd (Head)
Over the course of 17 runnings only 3 Belmont Stakes Winners have been further off the pace-setter than 4½ lengths with a mile remaining and those three winners, Creator, Jazil and Afleet Alex were within 3½, 2½, and 3½ respectively with a half mile remaining.
Tactical...tactical...tactical. These are just a few of the elements we'll provide over the next 12 days as we lead up to the Belmont Stakes. Make certain to revisit this page every day for more.
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