Submitted by National Race Masters on Monday, May 22, 2017 at 5:46 PM
GRASS CONTINUES TO STAY "GREEN" AT BELMONT
It is no secret and well worth repeating that the key to showing profit is not only a BEST WINNING PERCENTAGE, but the BEST RETURN ON INVESTMENT (R.O.I.)
If you win 40% of your races and your wagering "neighbor" wins 35%, the knee-jerk conclusion would be that the 40% winner is collecting more profit. On the other hand, if the average return win mutuel for the 40% winner is $7.20 and the average mutuel payoff for the 35% winner is $8.90, the latter will have a higher R.O.I. and a higher total profit.
The only way to accomplish the higher R.O.I. is to find value.
The definition of value, of course, can be very subjective. It is often presented as a handicapper using his or her methodology to determine the chances or odds a horse has of winning the race and measuring that against the odds presented by the public betting pool.
Simply put, if player "A" determines that his horse has a 40% chance of winning (or 5-2 odds) and he is getting 4-1, this becomes "his value bet." In addition, there are services available now that apply an algorithm to odds-value and some players use that as a marker.
There is also another approach to determining if you are betting into a situation which might give you an edge when it comes to maximizing net profit. This can be called GENERIC VALUE and does not depend on algorithm or subjective application. One of these Generic Value Scenarios exists on the Turf at Belmont Park.
(TURF PAYOUTS ECLIPSE MAIN TRACK PAYOUTS AT BELMONT PARK)
A player does not need to look very deeply into the results of the current Spring/Summer meet at Belmont Park to see that all things being equal from a handicapping perspective, your money is much better invested in Turf racing as opposed to Main Track racing.
Over the course of the first 18 racing days (4/28 - 5/21) there have been 70 turf races at Belmont Park. The average breakdown for those races is as follows:
Average field size 9.8 horses.
Average Win Payout - $13.80
Average Exacta Payout - $84.40
26 of the 70 winners have paid double digits.
Only 8 of the 70 have been "odds-on."
These numbers compare with total meet numbers:
Overall Average field size of 8.1 horses.
Overall Average Win Payout - $11.90
Overall Average Exacta Payout - $67.60
These "Overall Average Payouts" are considerably better on the turf AND the averages are even less for Main Track Only because the Overall $11.90 and $67.60 Payouts are bumped up by the higher Turf Averages.
So if as a handicapper your records show that your percentages of winners are equal or close to equal on both the Main Track and the Turf, then you are well advised to consider the GRASS AS "GREENER" reality at Belmont as a big first step to FINDING VALUE.