Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, May 17, 2017 at 2:09 PM
Whatever the reason, and there are many, from careless quick-fix handicapping, to listening to the pundits, there are certain MYTHS that too often translate into handicapping dogma.
For instance, every year we hear that horses who closed significantly in their final mile and an eight Kentucky Derby preps will be aided by the extra furlong in the Run for the Roses. Of course it has much-more-often-than-not been tactical speed runners who have the edge at Churchill.
When it comes to the Preakness the dogma gets flipped when we hear over and over about tight turns, a shorter distance, speed edge, etc.
With that "reverse" MYTH in place I offer this...
While experienced tactical and versatile speed has shown up well in the win spot (but far from overwhelmingly), if you are an exotic player, you should be more than willing to consider off-the-pace horses to fill out those combos.
Since 2004...horses filling out the exotics (especially the runner-up and third place runners) have been come-from behind horses. Just look at the second call position and lengths off the lead of horses who completed the Preakness Exotics over the last 13 years.
2016 - Exaggerator (Won) - 8th by 11...Cherry Wine (2nd) - 10th by 24
2015 - Tale Of Verve (2nd) - 8th by 17...Diving Rod (3rd) - 4th by 7½
2014 - Ride On Curlin (2nd) - 9th by 8½
2013 - Itsmyluckyday (2nd)- 4th by 6...Mylute (3rd) - 8th by 9½
2012 - Pace Setters/Pressers Dominated...I'll Have Another/Bodemeister/Creative Cause
2011 - Animal Kingdom (2nd) - 13th by 13½
2010 - Lookin At Lucky (Won) - 5th by 5½
2009 - Mine That Bird (2nd) - 13th by 13...Musket Man (3rd) - 8th by 8
2008 - Macho Again (2nd) - 6th by 7...Icabad Crane (3rd) - 12th by 11½
2007 - Curlin (Won) - 7th by 12½...Street Sense (2nd)- 8th by 15
2006 - Hemingway's Key (3rd) - 7th by 11½
2005 - Afleet Alex (Won) - 10th by 7½...Giacomo (2nd) - 11th by 8½
2004 - Rock Hard Ten (2nd) - 7th by 7½...Eddington (3rd) - 6th by 6
If you go back and mix and match the early paces of the race...the half mile time was between :45 3/5 and :48 2/5...you will see that even the slower pace races produced relatively the same race shape results.
As I have so often said...it is never as easy as the absolute DOGMATIC MYTHS that attempt to simplify a game that can never avoid hard work.
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