Submitted by Jim Hurley on Monday, June 17, 2013 at 12:00 AM
MAKING THE PLACE BET WORK
Progressive Reinvestment Is One Way To Go
Monday, June 17, 2013
When it comes to place betting there are as many approaches as there are horses in a full field.
Some bettors will use the place bet to back up their win bet regardless of whether that win bet is a favorite or a price horse. And that group will further segment into those who bet the same amount win and place or double up the place bet with the idea that even if the horse does lose they will at least get back their investment in the case of the favorite bet or make money if they are betting a price horse. Further down the line within that group are a handful of bettors who actually chart the pools and calculate the payoffs based on the odds.
There is nothing wrong with any of these approaches. Although as I’ve said many times, there is nothing wrong, IF, the bettor has kept records and knows that the type of wagering they are doing is playing to their strong suit.
However, I would like to suggest that if you (the bettor) have found a comfort zone in protecting your investment by "hedging" with a place bet and have even had relative profit success, there are ways to increase that profit and protect your bankroll even more. Simply enough I call it PROGRESSIVE REINVESTMENT.
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What do I mean by PROGRESSIVE REINVESTMENT and how does it work? Glad you asked.
This idea for reinvestment (in a number of different length of play and number of wagers) has been used for many years by horse bettors who know how maximize their handicapping acumen by keeping part of their profit and reinvesting a diminishing percentage of that profit as their bankroll increases.
Let me give you an example of what I mean.
One bettor who uses the place bet as a saver might wager $20 and $20 on a horse that indeed runs second and returns $4.80 to place. In essence that bettor has lost his win bet but had it covered by the place bet and actually netted a profit of $8.00. That same bettor might do one of two things, pocket the $8 and play another $20/$20 wager on the next horse he likes or he might parlay the $48.00 back on his next wager. In this case discipline is a necessity because that bettor is now putting back through the window (risking) more money than he made on his initial bet. And I might add, is likely, with $48 at stake, will be more than less likely to skip a win bet. Sound familiar?
Let’s say that the second part of the parlay does win the race and pays $7.00 and $3.80. The bettor has now turned the initial $40 investment into $91.20, or a $51.20 profit. Yet let me propose something else that might have happened to those bettors that didn’t come back with another win bet...despite winning they are now in a funk because they DID NOT also bet to win. Obviously if they take the profit and run, fine. They might even turn around and go back to a straight $20/$20 wager on the next horse and find out that the horse they bet finishes second and pays $4.20. They don’t win; they don’t lose, but simply add $2 more to their overall bankroll. But you know what else they do? They kick themselves for not sticking with the place parlay that would have turned the $91 into $191.00. On the other hand they actually might have stuck with the parlay and then bet the $191.00 back into the next bet...and seen the whole thing com to an end.
So in conclusion we have two possible scenarios, one in which the bettor has shown a profit of $51.20 through three races or lost it all (the $40 initial investment by the fourth bet.)
That is where the idea of wagering with PROGRESSIVE REINVESTMENT comes in.
This program allows the bettor to take some profit out of his or her initial wager as the place parlay progresses while decreasing the percentage of the exiting bankroll.
Let’s use the same results above (including the loss of the fourth bet) for a FOUR HORSE PLACE BET PROGRESSIVE REINVESTMENT as an example.
Starting with a $20 Place Bet you will look to extend your parlay through four bets. You continue to make these bets until you lose. Obviously if you win all four bets you have maximized the PROGRESSIVE REINVETMENT WAGER.
I am using a four horse rotation because by keeping long time records I know that my chances of extending past four races decline dramatically whereas the drop off from three straight to four straight is small enough that it is still productive when I extend to four and lose that final sequence compared to the number of times and resultant return based on how often I carry it out through all four bets.
You will start with that $20 Place Wager and BET BACK 25% less of your total bankroll with each ensuing wager. So, using the same results from our mythical bettor above the program would work as follows:
- $20 Wager ($4.80 Payoff) Returns $48.00...75% of $48 is $36...$12.00 Carried - Total Profit $12.00
- $36 Wager ($3.80 Payoff) Returns $68.40...50% of $68 is $34...$34.40 Carried - Total Profit $46.40
- $34 Wager ($4.20 Payoff) Return $71.40...25% of $71.00 is $18...$53.40 Carried - Total Profit $99.80
- $18 Wager (Lose) Return $0...Loss is now initial $20 wager...Total Profit is $99.80
Just to add a little perspective: should you have bet these four horses separately as $20 place wagers you would have invested $80 and gotten back a total of $128.00 for a $48.00 profit.
Compare that with the player who had built his wager all the way to $151 through three races but lost it all on the fourth bet. Plus remember how the approach could have gotten in the way of the Win Bets. This way the PROGRESSIVE REINVESTMENT of the place betting is totally separated from the Win bets.
Even if the bettor only cashed two win bets out of four and they paid $6.80 and $7.00 the total would be $80 in and $138.00 back.
With that in mind let’s take a look at a successful four horse sequence from this past Saturday...two races at Belmont and two at Churchill Downs.
- Belmont - Race 4 - Here Comes Tommy - $4.40
$20 Wager ($4.40 Payoff) Returns $44.00...75% of $44 is $33...$11.00 Carried - Total Profit $11.00
- Belmont - Race 9 - Money In Motion -$6.00
$33 Wager ($6.00 Payoff) Returns $99.00...50% of $99 is $49...$50.00 Carried - Total Profit $61.00
- Churchill - Race 7 - Code West - $3.40
$49 Wager ($3.40 Payoff) Returns $63.30...25% of $63 is $16...$47.30 Carried - Total Profit $108.30
- Churchill - Race 8 - Fort Larned - $5.20
$16 Wager ($5.20 Payoff) Returns $41.60...Carried $41.60 - Total Profit $149.90
Just to add a little perspective: should you have bet each of these horses separately your $80 investment would have returned $190.00...or a profit of $110.00.
Keep in mind that PROGRESSIVE REINVESTMENT can be designed to accommodate any pattern of Place or even Show wagers. If you are comfortable extending you wager to five races the only adjustment would be to reduce each stage of the bet by 20%. For a confident and disciplined Show Bettor the extension might be as many as ten wagers until a loss. Obviously a complete cash-out of ten races where the horse only has to be in the money could prove lucrative as the bettor decreases each ensuing wager by 10%.
Regardless of your comfort zone, in the long run a careful, money managed PROGRESSIVE REINVESTMENT method of wagering should be something you should consider if you are looking to protect your bankroll and maximize your returns.