Submitted by Jim Hurley on Sunday, June 23, 2013 at 12:00 AM
MAXIMIZING THE WIN BET
A Twist On Progressive Reinvestment
In the first two parts of the PROGRESSIVE REINVESTMENT Money Management Methods I discussed how a disciplined Place or Show Bettor could maximize profit by finding his or her comfort zone as to how long a streak of successful bets could be run out based on their own record keeping of past success.
Now I will move on to the WIN BET.
While the Money Management Method that I will suggest as one you might use is in a way a PROGRESSIVE REINVESTMENT METHOD, it differs from what was proffered for the Place and Show bet in that you wager on a set number of races from the start of the method until the end regardless of how many races you win and/or lose.
In this case, instead of making an initial bet (the $20 in the Place and Show examples from Part I and Part II) you decide on the amount of money you are comfortable LOSING should the worst WIN BET SCENARIO come to pass and then split that up in a reduced percentage of amount bet based on the number of Win Wagers you plan on making with that fixed amount.
I know that sounds complicated, but let me give you an example of what I mean.
Suppose you decide you can comfortably lose $120. In that case, this WIN BET METHOD would dictate that you are going to make six wagers, regardless of how many races you win and/or lose.
The primary wagers would be IN SEQUENCE as follows:
FIRST BET - $40.00
SECOND BET - $32.00
THIRD BET - $24.00
FOURTH BET - $16.00
FIFTH BET - $8.00
SIXTH BET - $0.00
Now, before you ask how you can bet $0.00 let me explain how the PROGRESSIVE REINVESTMENT METHOD works with this particular Money Management process.
- ONE - You are committed to wagering $120.
- TWO - You are going to make each bet beginning with the primary amount ascribed to each wager in the system.
- THREE - After you win a bet in the sequence the amount of the payout on that $2 wager is carried and added in to all the subsequent bets later in the sequence rounding down to the lower full dollar amount. For instance an $11.40 winner would be carried as $11.00.
- FOUR - After each NEXT BET is determined, the profit is carried.
Here is how it looks on paper (using an as if sequence of six bets from six straight races at Belmont Park on Sunday, June 16.
- Race 1 - Still Shea To Me...$40
WON - $11.40 ($11.00)...Total Return - $228.00...Next Wager is $43...Carried Profit $185.00
- Race 2 - Little Gabby Girl...$32 + 11.00 or a $43 Bet
WON - $6.60 ($6.00)...Total Return - $141.90...Next Wager is $41...Carried Profit $98.90 (Total Profit $283.90)
- Race 3 - Lucci The Lion.......$24 +11.00 +6.00 or a $41 Bet
LOST - Total Return - $0.00...Carried Profit - $41.00 (Total Profit $242.90)
- Race 4 - Don Dulce.............$16 +11.00 +6.00 + 0.00 or a $33 Bet
WON - $8.50 ($8.00)...Total Return - $140.25...Next Wager is $33...Carried Profit $107.25 (Total Profit $350.15)
- Race 5 - Familyofroses......$8.00 + 11 +6.00 +0 + 8 or a $33 Bet
LOST - Total Return $0.00...Carried Profit -$33.00 (Total Profit $317.15)
- Race 6 - Zip Up.....................$8.00 +11 +6 +0 +8 +0 or a $33 Bet
WON - $6.60...Total Return $108.90...Carried Profit $75.90 (Total Profit $393.05)
Admittedly the 4 out of 6 is a good percentage. But even had you lost the last bet and hit just 3 out of 6 with the Method, your profit would have been $284.15 for the sequence. And from an emotional consistency (a strength shared by all winning bettors) and money management discipline you know going in that you are primed to decrease your percentage of bets from your committed bankroll as you go through the sequence.
Just stop and think about that for a moment. The method honors two of the most cherished mantras of thoroughbred wagering. You decrease you wagers as you lose and increase as you win. BOTH are taken care of by this method because the initial principal wagers 1-6 decrease as you proceed, yet increase if prior winnings are added in.
It is also to look at this on a comparative basis.
Let’s begin with that $120 Bankroll and split it up into six $20 wagers.
With the four winners above bet separately you would have gotten back a total of $331.00 minus your $120 for a profit of $211...INSTEAD OF $393.05 (a difference of $182.05.) If you dropped to three winners by eliminating the last winner listed above you would have collected a total of $265 minus the $120 for a profit of $145...INSTEAD OF THE $284.15 from three winners in the sequence (a difference of $139.15.)
As is noted with all Money Management Systems, knowing your own strengths and weaknesses is crucial. But what is also excellent about this kind of method is that it also works at just about any comfort zone. For instance, if you are more at ease with a bit less you can break a $90 bankroll down into $30, $24, $18, $12, $6 and $0 and still add in the $2 Wager Amount of the Win to balance out your PROGRESSIVE REINVESTMENT.
NOTE: The sample above used 6 straight races at Belmont only as a means of doing the math. Obviously based on your handicapping strengths and the number of "bettable" races within your comfort zone you would stretch this out over a full card or two cards at two different race tracks in a given day or even at one or more tracks over one or more days.
And like any other method, it can’t hurt to map it out on paper with bets you would otherwise be making.