Submitted by Jim Hurley on Monday, November 11, 2013 at 12:00 AM
HORSES TO WATCH
Week Ending Sunday, November 10
The horses listed below ran well enough in their most recent races to indicate that they are sitting on solid future performances. Bet them under the terms listed at least twice or until they win and then drop.
NOTE: Keep in mind that racing at Churchill ends in three weeks and many of the horses will switch to the Polytrack (synthetic) surface at Turfway Park. The Fair Grounds meet opens on 11/22 and some of the Kentucky barns will ship some of their horses there. In New York the Aqueduct main track meet will run until early December, after which they move to the all-weather Inner Dirt Track. These HTW documents will take these moves into consideration. Also of importance is that Gulfstream Park will move to their full week schedule commencing November 30, so keep in mind that a number of high profile barns move horses from New York to Florida over the winter, so until HTW follows Gulfstream check the entries to see if any of the Aqueduct runners go next out there.
Last Week’s Horses To Watch Runners
NUFFSAID NUFFSAID – WON $8.30…Stayed in vs 16K starter claimers and won right back..
AMERICAN KITTY – Had every chance from just off the pace but failed to kick in and finished a flat fourth…only bet the second time if dropped at least one level in the starting claimer ranks.
WHATSDACHANCES – WIN $4.40…Finally ran a clean trip and got up late to win the Summer Secretary Stakes
*MAGICAL MOMENT – WON $26.80…This is the prime example of why we tell you to play at least twice. After a tough trip three back in which he battled gamely while losing ground he was once again compromised by a bad trip in his next to last. This time the public gave up on him, he got the good trip at the right level and there you have it.
HELICOPTER – Second…Place $3.90 (at Woodbine)…Shipper north and made a strong rally for the place at 5.15-1 in a 10 furlong test vs the winning favorite. Connections obviously want synthetic so check both WB and upcoming Turfwa7y entries for the second try he deserves.
ALWASYINMYCIRCLE – The Dominick Schettino trainee made his first start since 8/23 and first ever over a fast traditional dirt surface and showed good speed to grab the place money in a restricted NYSB first level allowance/optional 14K claimer in most recent. Protected at the allowance level the son of Value Plus battled early along the inside took a clear lead into deep stretch and dug in to hold onto the place spot when collared by the favorite in the mile test. Beats this kind next time.
ASSYRIA – The Christophe Clement claiming filly made her first start since May in most recent broke towards the back of the pack early and commenced a furious 4 wide rally that fell just short as she settled for the place. The lightly raced 4-year old daughter of Empire Maker had shown flashes before being sent to the sidelines and now appears well-suited to the middle distance mile to mile and a sixteenth and 20K claiming level she ran at in the return. Wins soon.
COUSIN STEPHEN – After a flat debut in early September trainer Chad Brown gave this juvenile colt a little more time and it paid off. The son of Proud Citizen returned with blinkers added, stretched out from a mile to a mile and an eighth and easily dispatched his MSW rivals with a steady 3 wide trip around both turns. He strode away confidently at the end and appears to be capable of moving through allowance conditions right away. Stay with him.
LA VERDAD – The 3-year old Yes It’s True filly was sent off as the even money favorite in her first start since May last time and ran to her billing as she destroyed NYSB second level allowance/optional 35K claimers. Now three for four in her career and out of restricted condition options she nonetheless has shown more than enough to indicate she can match up with state-bred stakes rivals or win in open company. Stay with her.
MIDNIGHT MUSIC – Definitive 35K claiming win in most recent shouldn’t have come as such a big surprise as the 3-year old colt had shown signs in recent tries and was running first off the claim fro trainer Laura Perillo who is handling the New York string for Midwest Thoroughbreds. The son of Midnight Lute broke inward at the start, bumped with a rival and then raced 4 wide while just off the leaders before being set down entering the lane. He took over inside the furlong marker and drew ell clear late. No reason he won’t win again soon vs NW2L or 3-year olds at the same level.
PONTUS – In his last the 3-year old son of Harlan’s Holiday shipped in from PARX and made his first start since mid-August. The gelding dueled along the inside, had the lead through 6 furlongs in 1:09 4/5 and weakened to the show spot in the mile 35K NW2L or three-year old mile race. Haltered by heating up trainer Laura Perillo this guy bears watching at the same level, especially if he shortens up a bit before they hit the IDT or even around two turns when they move to that surface. Wins one soon.
STATE VISIT – The juvenile daughter of Harlan’s Holiday broke poorly from the gate in her last, was slow into stride and rallied well for the show. It was the second career start for the Bill Mott trained MSW runner as she stretched out to a mile following a 6 furlong debut. She began to figure it out in the most recent and doesn’t figure to be a maiden much longer. ALSO REMEMBER…Gulfstream Park opens for full week racing on 11/30 so check those entries as many big name NY barns will ship strings south.
TUJOES – The Steve Klesaris PARX shipper lost all chance when she stumbled a bit at the start after getting carried out by a rival when making his first start since June. The son of Oratory has won 8 times from 22 career starts and fits well at the 25K starting claimer level he raced at in last and has shown speed from 6 to 8 ½ furlongs. Needed the race and with a good break can beat this kind in next. Also check PARX entries in case Klesaris runs back at the home track.
TUMMEL – The son of Yes It’s True turned in his third straight competitive effort in last. After being claimed in mid-August by current trainer Mitchell Friedman the colt turned in two good races vs 16K starter optional claimers and was bumped up to the 20K level in last. He again contested the early pace in the 6 furlong dash, came wide into the lane and got out-finished while settling for show honors. Will win one of these soon, especially if dropped down a notch.
SPORTSWRITER – The gelded son of Maybry’s Boy went wrong this past winter after a solid enough 3-year old campaign that saw him win a NYSB Stakes race. Trainer David Jacobson claimed him two back out of a restricted entry level allowance/optional 14K claimer and in the most recent ran him vs restricted entry level allowance/optional 25K claimers and watched as he just missed catching the favorite in the 6 furlong test. They usually improve in the Jacobson barn so look for this guy to beat the same soon.
UNKNOWN ROAD – The juvenile MSW son of Bernardini made his debut in most recent and made a strong try at catching the 1-2 winning favorite. He made up solid ground to miss by less than a length while 12 ½ lengths clear of the show horse. The Michael Hushion trainee was a bit green in the early going but quickly figured it out so won’t be a maiden much longer…especially if given a little more ground than the 6 furlongs of the debut.
CAPTAIN GENIUS – The 4-year old Joe Woodward trainee turned in a solid effort vs. good rivals in his first start in 11 months last out. The son of Simon Pure broke sharply and stalked the pace through a quick :45 3/5 half mile in the 25K claimer, made a move towards the lead and weakened in the final furlong of the 6 panel test. He was claimed by strong first-off-the-halter conditioner Brad Cox and the consistent (10-4-0-3 career) colt should move forward in next.
COMMANDING CURVE – The juvenile MSW ridgeling showed continued improvement in career start number three in last. After a failed debut over the Saratoga slop the Dallas Stewart trained son of Master Command showed pressing speed in finishing second in a mile test two back and in his most recent settled just off the pace in a tight pack early on going a mile and a sixteenth, moved 4 wide on the far turn and rallied for the show. Puts it all together next time.
COMMANDMENT – Completely ignored in her most recent debut, the juvenile daughter of Sky Mesa came flying late at 12-1 and grabbed the place spot just a half length off the winner. The Kellyn Gorder trained miss broke inwardly at the start and was steadied briefly and outrun before getting out 4 wide in the lane and finishing strong in the 6 furlong dash. Won’t be 12-1 next time nor will it be long in waiting for her first career victory.
FEATURE WINNER – The lower level claiming gelding was moved up to third via disqualification in 7.5K test in most recent and might have been best. The Greg Foley trainee was close up early in the 7 furlong dash, made a move to take a short lead approaching the stretch and was bumped hard and steadied sharply by the eventual winner. The 4-year old re-gathered and continued on for fourth before moving up when the first place finisher was taken off the board. Was claimed by sharp conditioner Brad Cox and gets his second career win vs similar restricted NW1L foes soon.
GALLOPING DOMINO – Trainer Chris Richard claimed the 5-year old mare four back for 5K and has now won twice and placed once in three starts ranging from 7.5K to 18K open sellers. But in her last she was dominant in a 5K starter allowance, drawing off by 4 lengths in the 6 furlong sprint. Good enough to win as high as 10K starters so follow closely as she wins back remaining within the proper levels.
HARBOR PLACE – The 5-year old Dixieland band horse lost a bit of ground and had to settle for the place in most recent. The Mike Maker trainee was making his first start since being claimed for the same 16K price two back and after waiting between horses in the mile test was fanned 5 wide off the turn and continued strongly to just miss while 6 lengths clear of the show finisher. The runner was claimed again, this time by solid trainer Tim Glyshaw so looks to get his next win right away.
KEYSTONE COP – The 3-year old son of Badge Of Silver looks to be quickly making up for a late start to his career as he completely dominated 30K maiden claimers in career start number three last time out. Following a turf try at Ellis in his debut and a decent second sprinting vs 25K winless rivals at Indiana Downs trainer Ronny Werner shipped in and his charge left little to doubt. The gelding made a sharp move down the backstretch, angling to the rail from his outside post, opened a margin by the top of the stretch in the 6 furlong dash and widened through the lane. He won’t take long to beat mid-range open claimers. Bet him back.
NO FREE RIDE – The 3-year old claiming filly continues to show improvement at the 15-20K level. The Greg Compton trainee hit the board for the fourth straight time (0-3-1) when she made a three wide move from the back of the field in a mile and a sixteenth 15K affair and secured the place while missing by a neck. Gets the top spot if facing the same next time.
TYCOON – Consistent Mike Maker trained claiming gelding showed sharp speed in 16K sprint in last and should be much better suited if back at two turns in next. Much more comfortable at a mile or mile and a sixteenth the son of Macho uno vied for the lead while three wide throughout, battled on gamely and held well for the place through quick fractions. With speed now built in he should be tough at the 15-20K level in next as he goes for new conditioner Stephen Baker who claimed him out of the last race. Follow closely.