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Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, September 30, 2015 at 12:00 AM


Wednesday, 9/30/15
VOLUME 12...Number 8


By this coming Sunday evening we’ll know much more about the live construct of the 2015 Breeders’ Cup to be run Friday, October 2, Saturday October 3 and Sunday October 4.  

This Friday, October 2 the Keeneland fall Meet gets underway and does so by featuring a pair of Breeders’ Cup Qualifying Stakes races, the Alcibiades Stakes for Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly hopefuls and the Ogden Phipps Phoenix Stakes which has a guaranteed spot in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.   On Saturday October 3 there will be seven more WIN & IN BC QUALIFIERS from three Different tracks... one more at Santa Anita, a pair at Keeneland and four at Belmont Park.

On Sunday, October 4 Keeneland will showcase three more Breeders’ Cup Qualifiers, which will be the final GUARANTEED WIN & IN BC PREPS for 2015

Friday, October 2
(Keeneland) - Alcibiades Stakes (BC Juvenile Fillies)
(Keeneland) - Phoenix Stakes (BC Sprint)

Saturday, October 3
(Keeneland) - Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (BC Mile Turf)
(Keeneland) - Turf Club Of America Stakes (BC F&M Sprint)
(Santa Anita) - Santa Anita Sprint Championship (BC Sprint)
(Belmont) - Flower Bowl Invitational Stakes (BC F&M Turf)
(Belmont) - Frizette Stakes (BC Juvenile Fillies)
(Belmont) - Champagne Stakes (BC Juvenile)
(Belmont) - Jockey Club Gold Cup (BC Classic)

Sunday, October 4
(Keeneland) - Spinster Stakes (BC Distaff)
(Keeneland) - Dixiana Bourbon Stakes (BC Juvenile Turf)
(Keeneland) - Jassamine Stakes (BC Juvenile Fillies Turf)

Generally speaking, trainers using this three day series of races should be seen as not only needing the WIN & IN GUARANTEE but with the twelve races being spaced as they are many conditioners will see these races as a perfect opportunity to get their horses primed for their best efforts at the end of October at Keeneland and are not as necessarily concerned with winning at all cost, especially those horses that are either already guaranteed a spot or who will run in any case as historically the races have not been heavily drawn with BC WIN & IN contenders but with the best in their divisions as well as entered an in sleepers when spots become available.

The thing that must be remembered when handicapping these races is that they should be viewed as STAND ALONE RACES. To a degree, while you can project trainer intent it is always important to view individual races as opportunities to make money here and now and not have your analysis clouded by what the horse running in the Breeders’ Cup after these races will do four weeks from now. Because history tells us that as big as these races are during this upcoming three day weekend and twelve races the results in the Breeder’s’ Cup show that there is ABSOLUTELY NO PATTERN AS TO WHICH FINAL PREPS PROVIDE ANY ADVANTAGE OVER ANY OTHERS.

To show you what we are getting at here and to serve as aid in analyzing these races and the ensuing Breeders’ Cup let’s take a look at the results of the 2014 Breeders’ Cup races and where the Winner through Trifecta horses last prepped.

Lady Eli - 9/28...Belmont...Miss Grillo Stakes
Sunset Glow - 8/30...Del Mar...Del Mar Debutante Stakes (Won)
Osaila - European Shipper

Hootenanny - 5/16...Pimlico...Rollicking Stakes
Luck Of The Kitten - 10/5...Santa Anita...Zuma Beach Stakes (Won)
Daddy D T - 9/27...Santa Anita...Front Runner Stakes (Fifth)

Golden Cents - 10/4...Santa Anita...Sprint Championship Stakes (Second)
Tapiture - 9/20...PARX...Pennsylvania Derby (Second)
Pants On Fire - 9/20...Charles Town...Wild And Wonderful Stakes (Won)

Untapable - 9/20...PARX...Cotillion Stakes (Won)
Don’t Tell Sophia - 10/5...Keeneland...Spinster Stakes (Won)
Iotapa - 9/27...Santa Anita...Zenyatta Stakes (Third)

Take Charge Brandi - 10/3...Keeneland...Alcibiades Stakes (Eighth)
Top Decile - 10/3...Keeneland...Alcibiades Stakes (Second)
Wonder Gal - 10/4...Belmont...Frizette Stakes (Second)

Dayatthespa - 10/4...Keeneland...First Lady Stakes (Won)
Stephanie’s Kitten - 9/27...Belmont...Flower Bowl Stakes (Won)
Just The Judge - 10/19...Woodbine...E.P. Taylor (Won)

Judy The Beauty - 8/17...Del Mar...Rancho Bernardo Stakes (Won)
Better Lucky - 10/4...Keeneland...First Lady Stakes (Second)
Thank You Marylou - 10/8...Keeneland...Raven Run Stakes (Third)

Bobby’s Kitten - 9/14...Woodbine...Woodbine Mile Stakes (Third)
No Nay Never - 10/4...Keeneland...Woodford Stakes (Won)
Undrafted - 9/24...Kentucky Downs...Turf Dash Stakes (Third)

Texas Red - 9/27...Santa Anita...Front Runner Stakes (Third)
Carpe Diem - 10/4...Keeneland...Breeders’ Futurity (Won)
Upstart - 10/4...Belmont...Champagne Stakes (Second)

Main Sequence - 9/27...Belmont...Joe Hirsch Turf Stakes (WON)
Flintshire - European Shipper
Twilight Eclipse - 9/27...Belmont...Joe Hirsch Turf Stakes (Second)

Work All Week - 10/3...Keeneland...Phoenix Stakes (Won)
Secret Circle - 10/4...Santa Anita...Sprint Championship Stakes (Third)
Private Zone - 9/27...Belmont...Vosburgh Stakes (Won)

Karakonite - European Shipper
Anodin - European Shipper
Trade Storm - 9/14...Woodbine...Woodbine Mile Stakes (Won)

Bayern - 9/20...PARX...Pennsylvania Derby (Won)
Toast Of New York - 8/24...Del Mar...Pacific Classic (Second)
California Chrome - 9/20...PARX...Pennsylvania Derby (Sixth)

We could go back though the recent years and see the same spread. Just handicap the 12 preps this Friday through Sunday. Clear your mind as to how performances in these races will impact the Breeders’ Cup...the horses have to get there first.

We’ll return to these pages Friday morning with a previews of the Alcibiades and Ogden Phipps Phoenix on opening day at Keeneland.

Click here to get Jim Hurley’s top picks every day at Belmont and other key tracks.

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