GRASS CONTINUES TO STAY "GREEN" AT BELMONTIt is no secret and well worth repeating that the key to showing profit is not only a BEST WINNING PERCENTAGE, but the BEST RETURN ON INVESTMENT (R.O.I.)If you win 40% of your races and your wagering "neighbor" wins 35%, the knee-jerk conclusion would be that the 40% winner is collecting more profit. On the other hand, if the average return win mutuel for the 40% winner is $7.20 and the average mutuel payoff for the 35% winner is $8.90, the latter will have a higher R.O.I. and a higher total profit.The only way…

Whatever the reason, and there are many, from careless quick-fix handicapping, to listening to the pundits, there are certain MYTHS that too often translate into handicapping dogma.For instance, every year we hear that horses who closed significantly in their final mile and an eight Kentucky Derby preps will be aided by the extra furlong in the Run for the Roses. Of course it has much-more-often-than-not been tactical speed runners who have the edge at Churchill.When it comes to the Preakness the dogma gets flipped when we hear over and over about tight turns, a shorter distance, speed edge, etc.  With…

TIPS TO SORT-OUT PREAKNESS & PIMLICO CONTENDERS

The Preakness Stakes has been a chalk-players' heaven in recent years, but the second jewel of horseracing's Triple Crown nevertheless should not be overlooked by handicappers and horseplayers looking for value in an important race that is the cornerstone of one of the best racing and wagering days of the entire year.

The Preakness Stakes, the second jewel of Thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown, will be run on Saturday, May 20 in its usual spot two weeks after the Kentucky Derby.  With the Kentucky Derby winner and other top 3-year-olds heading to Baltimore for…

To the victor go the spoils, and in Always Dreaming, we have a very impressive victor of the Run for the Roses. Quickly shifting from Louisville to Baltimore, there are only 11 more days from racing's Middle Jewel, and the field is firming up for Preakness Stakes 2017. Who will be at Pimlico to see if they can prevent the Kentucky Derby winner from taking his fifth straight, and move one step closer to the Triple Crown? As of right now, there are ten expected to enter the Preakness…

Some handicappers think too many horseplayers use track bias - meaning conditions that promote certain styles like early speed or location on the track, like outside lanes - as an excuse for disappointing results.

Others think horseplayers are too quick to make an assumption of a track bias, like calling out a speed bias when winners of an early race or two go wire-to-wire even though they may have been heavily favored and found races where they could control the pace.

With cold weather and intermittent rain at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Oaks Day, May 5, and Kentucky Derby Day, May 6,…

Coming up with the winner of the Kentucky Derby is always one of the toughest handicapping tests of the year for horseplayers. Everyone from the most avid Thoroughbred racing fans to the once-a-year bettors will all be coming out of the woodwork for this one race, focusing on their efforts and their betting money on the task of sorting through the long list contenders and trying to separate them from the pretenders come Derby Day.

Each year, the challenge of picking the Derby winner seems to become more and more difficult, with so many…

The 2017 Kentucky Derby Contenders

As the build-up to the May 6 Kentucky Derby (G1) reaches fever pitch, it’s time to cram on the contenders for America’s iconic race. Now, let’s help find your Derby horse!Derby points in parenthesis.

GIRVIN (150 points)

Louisiana Derby (G2) and Risen Star (G2) winner tops the leaderboard.

Owner: Brad Grady, Trainer: Joe Sharp, Jockey: Mike Smith

Pedigree: by Tale of Ekati—Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon

CLASSIC EMPIRE (132 points)

Last year’s juvenile champion may be favored after rebounding in the Arkansas Derby (G1).

Owner: John Oxley, Trainer: Mark Casse, Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Pedigree: by Pioneerof the Mile—Sambuca Classica, by…

CHURCHILL MEET OPENING TIPS THROUGH DERBY DAY & BEYOND

The 2017 Churchill Downs Spring/Summer Meet begins on Saturday, April 29.  What follows after opening Night is one of the best weeks of racing of the year, Tuesday through Saturday of Kentucky Derby week at Churchill Downs. After that, the meet continues through the beginning of July as one of the best early summer race meets in the country.  Read onward for some inside tips on how to make money opening week at Churchill and build bankroll for horseracing's biggest day, and beyond.

The centerpiece of the Churchill Spring/Summer Meet, of course, will…

Although 2016 Juvenile Champion Classic Empire came through with a badly needed victory in the Arkansas Derby on Saturday, he will have to make a stronger forward move to win the 2017 Kentucky Derby.

Placed in between horses and a few lengths behind dueling leaders through the first 6 furlongs, Classic Empire rallied wide through the stretch as the 19-10 betting favorite to catch 19-1 shot Conquest Mo Money in the final strides to earn 100 Derby eligibility points. This assures Classic Empire a spot in the Derby starting gate. Nevertheless, the final clocking for the 1-1/8 miles was 1:48.93 on a very…

While Girvin won Saturday's Louisiana Derby as expected, Always Dreaming made a stronger impression winning the Florida Derby. Moreover, his performance had a significant impact on Churchill Downs' final Kentucky Derby Future Book Wagering pool.

Before the weekend, Always Dreaming was listed at 50-1 to win this year's Derby. But, after he drew clear by more than four lengths from State of Honor and favored Gunnevera in Gulfstream Park's richest Derby prep, Always Dreaming dropped to 6-1 in Churchill's future book pool. That left him just a notch higher than the 5-1 odds for future book betting favorite McCraken.

While no one should ignore the Derby chances of Girvin, or the…