Submitted by Jim Hurley on Tuesday, June 24, 2014 at 12:00 AM
SARATOGA OVERVIEWBELMONT WRAP UP: Three Weeks Until We Travel To The Spa
SOME FINAL DAYS “SHORT TURF PROFILES”
Part II - June 24
By Jim Hurley
You can look at the calendar and wonder why you are reading an article on the 2014 Saratoga Race Meet when it is still over 3 weeks away…or you can be grateful that with so much information available to help make this year’s meet the best ever IT IS NEVER TO EARLY to begin discussing all the INTRICATE ANGLES, TRENDS and HISTORICAL DATA that most Spa Bettors never consider…the Angles, Trends and Historical Data that will change your wagering fortunes.
It is also important to take advantage of current trends that could ASSIST IN BUILDING A SIGNIFICANT BANKROLL for the upcoming meet. With this in mind, over the course of the next few weeks we will publish updates to this SARATOGA OVERVIEW ARTICLE that reveals factors (both for current profit at Belmont and future profit at Saratoga) most bettors never even consider…factors that separate the 10% that win from the 90% that lose. We suggest you join us every week for this invaluable information
BELMONT TURF PROFILES REVEAL “OVERLAY” OPPORTUNITY
Beginning this Wednesday (6/25) there are three weeks remaining to the Belmont meet. The New York circuit of course then switches to Saratoga for the 40 Day Race Meet that runs from Friday, July 18 to Monday, September 1.
These three weeks have always been crucial to serious bettors who see Saratoga as a lucrative 40 Day Opportunity AND want to begin betting at the SPA with a significant bankroll.
With that in mind we are using this edition of the SARATOGA OVERVIEW to “Profile” what are OVERLAY Payoffs in 6 Furlong, 7 Furlong and 1 Mile Turf Races over the course of the last three weeks at Belmont.
First off we say PROFILE because instead of strict reliance on Ragozin or Thorograph Numbers or Beyer or BRIS Speed Numbers that for the most part point to favorites, which the profiles below will show to be distinct BET AGAINST PROPOSITIONS. Even more important, the breakdowns below for the 6, 7 and 8 Furlong races give you a range of performance figures that allow you to evaluate how certain horses in a race, based on their running styles will fit that range of patterns.
We have also chosen the last three weeks because this is the first time that there hasn’t been continual weather related interruption of turf racing…only one whole day and a small number of races were washed off the turf in the May 26 to June 22 four week sample used below.
As you absorb the statistics below you will also see the VALUE PRODUCED by the Turf Races in question as the Percentage of Winning Favorites is well below the overall 37% for the Meet (all surface and distances) and the Average Payoff of the Winners in these identified Turf Races is much higher than the overall winning price of $10.78 for the Meet: an average price that is even lower than that for all NON 6, 7 and 8 Furlong Turf races, which pump up that number.
Now that the introduction is over, let’s move to the PROFILES. Because the idea is to WIN NOW and play Saratoga with track profit!
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6 FURLONG TURF SPRINTS
Average Field Size—9.6 Horses
5 Winning Favorites—Average Payoff $4.86
Favorite Win Percentage 20.8%
19 Winning Non-Favorites—Average Payoff $13.88
Overall Average Payoff $12.00
Mean Average Payoff $17.30
4 Wire-To-Wire Winners
20 Non Wire-To-Wire Winners
Average Lengths Off Pace First Call—4.7
Average Lengths Off Pace Second Call—2.6
Range Off Pace First Call—11 - .5
Range Off Pace—Second Call—6.5—Lead
SUMMARY: As we mentioned in the introductory paragraphs above, these turf races have produced much better value than the overall Belmont racing has since the beginning of the meet and there is no reason to believe that this won’t continue.
All you need to do is look at the Winning favorites Percentage of 20.8% for these 6 furlong turf sprints as compared to the overall 37% favorites win mark for the Meet. But this is understandable because at 9.6 horses per field in these sprints you are beginning with a much larger field than you are in any dirt races. So you head into the races with the R.O.I. on your $2 wager already inflated.
Look above to the stats that show only 4 wire-wire winners from the 24 races. This allows you to approach the past performances with a method that tells you a potential pace setter/front runner with handicapped potential to wire the field should have additional angles such as class, trainer edges, jockey edges or a workout pattern or surface switch that is a large positive that might be overlooked by the public. In short, don’t just bet a turf sprinter at 6 furlongs because you believe he has more front end speed than his opponents.
In addition, while there have been a few horses that have rallied from a tracking position to win, a very high percentage of the winners have been within 80% of the average pattern that shows you have a decided edge if your runner has shown a running style that will put him within 4.7 lengths or better of the leader at first call (the half mile pole) and 2.6 lengths or better of the leader at second call (the quarter pole.)
Finally, one more support of the VALUE of betting these 6 furlong turf sprints. We mentioned above that the overall average payoff for the meet is $10.78. If you look above you see the average payoff for these races is $12.00. Now a $1.22 difference might not appear on the surface to be much but in essence it is an additional profit of $1.22 and with the initial $2 investment subtracted you are getting $10 in profit as compared to $8.78 in profit…or AN ADDITIONAL 12.2%! That is a pretty good standard of VALUE.
7 FURLONG TURF SPRINTS
Average Field Size—9.0 Horses
2 Winning Favorites—Average Payoff $4.50
Favorite Win Percentage 29%
5 Winning Non-Favorites—Average Payoff $10.80
Overall Average Payoff $9.29
Mean Average Payoff $9.15
1 Wire-To-Wire Winners
6 Non Wire-To-Wire Winners
Average Lengths Off Pace First Call—4.8
Average Lengths Off Pace Second Call—4.3
Range Off Pace First Call—7.5 - 3
Range Off Pace—Second Call—7—2
SUMMARY: The much smaller sample of 7 furlong turf races in essence produced a closer to the overall Race Meet Averages as far as percentage of winning favorites (slightly less at 29% than the overall 37%) and average payoffs (less at $9.29 than the overall $10.78.)
As far as the PROFILE of running styles you are in the same range as the 6 furlong sprints. 5 of the 7 winners (one deep closer and one wire-to-wire winner) have been within the average pattern that shows you have a decided edge if your runner has shown a running style that will put him within 4.8 lengths or better of the leader at first call (the 5/8 marker) and 4.3 lengths or better of the leader at second call (the the 3/8 marker.)
We repeat that the sample is small but as was the case with the larger sample of 6 furlong turf winners you are looking for a Pressing or Stalking Profile. And though (and this is applicable to 6 furlong races as well) there is an oft-repeated mantra that you want to look for two turn horses that showed early speed and are cutting back in distance, you are more likely to find a higher success rate among horses cutting back in distance who also showed good tactical pressing or stalking speed in their prior two turn races.
1 MILE TURF RACES
Average Field Size—8.2 Horses
7 Winning Favorites—Average Payoff $6.21
Favorite Win Percentage 29.2%
17 Winning Non-Favorites—Average Payoff $19.12
Overall Average Payoff $15.36
Mean Payoff $25.55
5 Wire-To-Wire Winners
19 Non Wire-To-Wire Winners
Average Lengths Off Pace First Call—4.6
Average Lengths Off Pace Second Call—2.1
Range Off Pace First Call—8.5 - 1
Range Off Pace—Second Call—4—Lead
SUMMARY:The consistency of continuation from 6 furlong turf races through 7 furlong turf races to these mile races makes PROFILING even more significant. All you need to do is look at the Winning favorites Percentage of 29.2% for these mile turf races as compared to the overall 37% favorites win mark for the Meet. While not as dramatic as the 20.8% of 6 furlong sprints (due to some degree to the smaller average field of 8.2 horses) all the average payouts were considerably higher than either the 6 furlong or 7 furlong races. The 7 favorites averaged $6.21, the overall average was $15.36 and the non-favorite average payoff lit it up at $19.12.
Let’s do the same with these results as we did with the 6 furlong results above. We mentioned above that the overall average payoff for the meet is $10.78. Now let’s apply the overall average I mile turf payoff of $15.36. Your additional profit on you $2 wager now increases to $13.36 vs $8.78 an additional profit of $4.58…or AN ADDITIONAL 34.3% RETURN ON INVESTMENT. That is an extraordinary definition of VALUE.
As we did with the 6 furlong races we can look above to the stats that show only 5 wire-wire winners from these 24 mile races. Again, this allows you to approach the past performances with a method that tells you a potential pace setter/front runner with handicapped potential to wire the field should have additional angles such as class, trainer edges, jockey edges or a workout pattern or surface switch that is a large positive that might be overlooked by the public. In short, don’t just bet a horse simply because he appears to have better front end speed than his opponents. However, it is also noteworthy that the 5 wire-to-wire winners averaged close enough in payoffs at $14.92 (compared to $15.36) to warrant consideration if additional handicapping strengths bear out his useful speed.
In addition, as the 6 furlong and 7 furlong profiles reveal, there have been a few horses that have rallied from a tracking position to win, a very high percentage of the winners have been within 85% of the average pattern that shows you have a decided edge if your runner has shown a running style that will put him within 4.6 lengths or better of the leader at first call (the 6 furlong marker) and 2.1 lengths or better of the leader at second call (the quarter pole.)
OVERALL SUMMARY: There can be no doubt that the four weeks of 3 different distance turf races at Belmont Park PROFILED above indicate a high end return on your investment. It should also be understood that this kind of PROFILING is paramount to WINNING AT THE RACE TRCAK and in this case Building Additional Profit for the upcoming Saratoga Meet. But you should also know that this PROFILING is only one of many steps taken before a horse is chosen as a GRETA OVERLAY VALUE BET. Just imagine fine tuning these profiles even further by applying trainer methodology, certain jockeys with certain trainers at particular distances, surface changes that fit the patterns and those that don’t as well as horses with the profile but are only, based on recent works, using the race as prep for “next time.”
This is the work we do. And we’ll do more of it over the course of the next few weeks as we prepare our extensive SARATOGA OVERVIEW.