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Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, September 17, 2014 at 12:00 AM

HORSES TO WATCH
Week Ending Sunday, September 14

Belmont-Churchill

The horses listed below ran well enough in their most recent races to indicate that they are sitting on solid future performances. Bet them under the terms listed at least twice or until they win and then drop.

Note: Now that the Saratoga meet and the Del Mar meet are finished and Fall racing settles back into regular rotation on the New York and Kentucky circuits, to be followed in Southern California beginning the last week of the month we are back with the weekly Horses To Watch segment.

(BELMONT PARK)

ALDRIN - For the second time in as many starts in his last the MSW juvenile son of Malibu Moon ran into traffic problems. In his debut the Chad Brown trainee was moving well entering the lane when he was bumped and forced 5 wide. In the most recent he was bumped at the start in the mile test, got pushed into the eventual winner and had to regroup before getting into contention and battling his way for runner-up honors. Just needs the clean break to get his first career win.

BREAKEVEN ANALYSIS - The Chad Brown trained 3-year old was much the best in last but had to settle for the place in an entry level turf allowance. The son of Lemon Drop Kid was making his first start since breaking his maiden in his prior and was stuck behind a wall of runners for a good quarter mile while in close attendance and missed by a half length in the mile and a sixteenth test. Just needs a clean trip to get the condition win in next.

CHARLIE’S PICNIC - After a series of route turf races in an attempt to break his maiden trainer Mark Henning ran the son of Indian Charlie in a grass sprint three back and finally got the initial win. Two back he returned to a route to no avail vs entry level allowance foes but in most recent went back to the sprint and the colt beat 40K claimers with a solid off the pace rally. Still eligible for the entry allowance level he could win right back at 6 or preferably 7 panels. Follow closely.

DANCING HOUSE - The first try since last November in most recent fell a nose short. The Kieran McLaughlin trained son of Tapit was sent off as the 9-5 favorite despite the layoff and after settling 3 wide early in the mile and a sixteenth turf test rolled out 4 wide into the lane, took the lead inside the furlong marker and dropped a nose decision on the wire. He needed the race, might have moved a step early but off the effort breaks the maiden in next.

EXPRESSION - The 5-year old race mare showed a new dimension in her last when she broke on top, made the pace, and held off all but the well-meant favorite in a second level allowance/optional 62.5K sprint in last. In her first try since February the Charlton Baker trained daughter of Invasor ran her career record to a solid 23-6-5-3 and should benefit from the return and get career win number 7 vs this kind soon. Stay with her.

MAMBO AT THE GYM - The Michael Wilson trained maiden dropped out of MSW ranks for the first time to face 62.5K maiden claimers in last and showed the kind of improved speed that should get him his initial win soon. The son of Bernstein pressed the pace of the wire-to-wire winner the entire way and held the place clear of the show finisher in the mile and a sixteenth event. A mile would be perfect but at the level he’ll break through next time.

NOBLE DOSS - The 6-year old Mr. Greeley geldling was dropped to the 12.5K claiming level and sent to the dirt after a number of tries vs better on the grass. The veteran showed good speed vs the soft competition but couldn’t hold off the winner while settling for place money. What is a key factor is that he was haltered out of the race by Linda Rice who is good off the claim and in shortening up two-turn turf and dirt horses into sprints. Look for this guy to go 6-8 furlongs on grass and bet off the claim.

PARIS BIKINI - The juvenile daughter of Bernardini was a most impressive debut winner in last as she broke on top, held a clear margin and never let the 7-10 favorite get close. The Todd Pletcher trainee was oddly overlooked at almost 7-1 off a 7-2 ML but triumphed in a sharp 1:09 2/5 and looks ready to move against minor stakes foes or dominate conditions. Bet her right back.

RED GUARD - The juvenile son of Bernardini found his best stride too late to impact the field in the 6 furlong turf MSW test when he made his debut in last but was full of run through the lane. Bred to run all day and trained by Shug McGaughey, the colt was far back in 10th of 11 at the break, was still 11.5 lengths back at the 3 furlong marker in the 7 furlong event and wound up in the 9 path coming off the turn. He managed to continue on for 4th, beaten just 2.5 lengths with a final 3 panels in :34 2/5. Breaks maiden in next.

TIZ YANKEE - The Nick Zito trained Tiznow horse continued to show improvement on grass in most recent as he jumped from 25K rivals in his prior to 50K foes in his most recent. The horse broke on the lead in the mile event, carved out decent fractions when pressured and kept on through the lane to be beaten just a neck and a length. He is sitting on a win and a slight drop back in class would go a long way towards getting it. Follow closely.

WEALTH TO ME - The veteran gelding made his first start off a 20K claim by trainer Jacobson two back, jumped up to face 40K foes and if he wasn’t beaten to the spot by the winner might have scored the victory. The 7-year old son of Tapit had to alter course entering the stretch, moved around rivals and got the place late in the mile event. He now has 7 wins and 7 seconds in 36 lifetime tries and is 8-2-3-0 at the mile distance. Play him back at the level going the one turn mile or mile and a sixteenth.

 (CHURCHILL DOWNS)

(Three Days Of Racing - Friday-Sunday)

DOUBLE OURS - The 4-year old Half Ours colt was all business as he shipped in from Lone Star and made his first start in 4 ½ months in last. The Randy Morse trainee was in hand at the break in the 6 furlong 25K claimer, stalked the pace setters, took command on the turn and gradually grew his lead to 4 lengths at the wire under a steady drive. He should keep winning as he was haltered out of the race by sharp claiming trainer Brad Cox.

ISLAND FEVER - The well-bred Discreetly Mine juvenile filly ($130K yearling purchase) was a step slow in her debut vs MSW foes in most recent and got started much too late in the 5 furlong event. The Neil Howard trainee had to wait for room until mid-stretch and made up 3 lengths in the final furlong once she got through and was beaten only a length for the place as all were handled by the 3-2 Saratoga shipper. She won’t take long to get her first career win…especially if given more ground.

RIYADH - Better late than never. This 3-year old son of Smoke Glacken finally made it to the races in last and promptly found his way to the winner’s circle with sharp victory despite being steadied mid-way through the 6 furlong MSW test. The Brendan Walsh trainee had no hesitation going between rivals after getting steadied near the three-sixteenths marker and might keep winning. Bet him back vs first level allowance rivals or in mid-upper level NW2L claimers.

SILVER ALLURE - In her most recent the Steve Hobby trained juvenile filly showed plenty of heart and talent in her third career start and first since July at Indiana Downs. The daughter of Unbridled’s Song tracked the early pace in the 6 furlong NW2 or 75K claiming allowance, stayed on 3 wide around the turn, shifted 4 wide leaving the turn and was steadied and then bumped in the lane before continuing on for the place, beaten just a half length while 3 ½ clear of the show runner. She needed the race and gets career win number two in next.

TALE OF HONOR - The Ron Moquett trained MSW gelding made his second career start and first since February at Oaklawn a winning one in last. The son of Tale Of The cat worked well prior to the race, tracked just off the pace setters down the backstretch in the 6 furlong affair and took the lead on the turn. The 3-year old began to draw clear at the quarter pole and was never challenged thereafter. He looks as though he’ll keep winning as he belatedly goes through conditions and should handle more ground and even the turf so the connections have plenty of options.

TAYLOR S - Trainer Dale Romans has a modest 10% large sample record with debuting MSW runners so the way this juvenile filly broke away from the field in the 6 ½ furlong test in most recent bodes well for the future. The well-bred home-bred daughter of Medaglia d’Oro was a step slow out of the gate from her 10 post but just as quickly found her stride and kicked clear within the first hundred yards. She was never threatened and held a large margin for the final 5 furlongs of the 6 ½ furlongs and was left to run on her own through the lane on the way to an in hand 4 length triumph. She could be any kind on dirt or turf and at two turns. Bet her right back. 

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