7/25/2010

SANFORD STAKES TRAINER ANGLES

Recently a reader asked for tips on how Thoroughbred trainers get their horses into the winner's circle. This is the second installment. If you missed the first, it was in this space on Friday.

Normally I evaluate a stakes races by describing the form of the horses entered. Instead, let's look at the Sanford Stakes in terms of the trainers and their success with juvenile dirt sprinters.

Kentucky-based Mike Maker conditions Maybesomaybenot. The gelding has made two starts at Churchill Downs, breaking his maiden in the latter at today's six furlong distance.

Maker has a 20 percent hit rate overall with this category. However, he has done less well in New York. Maker is 1 for 9 at Saratoga and zero for 12 at Belmont Park and Aqueduct.

Of those 21 New York juveniles, only one was entered in anything other than a maiden race. Of his juveniles racing in other states, only 3 have ever been in a stakes event, none winning. Hence, it is difficult to hang a relevant trainer angle on Maker's Sanford starter.

New Jersey-based Kelly Breen has become one of the most potent juvenile trainers on the East Coast. Breen has a maiden named Nacho Saint in the Sanford.

Most of Breen's two-year-olds race in New York or New Jersey. His hit rate overall is a sparkling 25 percent. However, it drops to 15 percent from 27 New York starters. Breen is winless from 7 Saratoga juvenile starts.

Breen-trained two-year-olds have made 9 stakes starts in New York, winning two. Both of the victors were entered in ungraded stakes. A few of his graded stakes juveniles have finished in the money.

Entering a maiden in a graded stake may seem bold. However, Nacho Saint has run well. If you find something to like about this colt, you can assume he's entered on merit.

Bail Out the Cat is the Sanford morning line favorite. That could be because he is conditioned by New York juvenile maven Rick Violette.

Violette is a 21 percent hitter with this category. He does even better at Saratoga, scoring at a 24 percentage rate.

Rick is best known for winning with Saratoga first-time starters. However, he did win the Grade 2 Adirondack Stakes at the Spa last year with a filly who looks almost identical to Bail Out the Cat. She won her debut at Belmont, then scored in the stake in her second career start.

The stars look aligned for Bail Out the Cat based on trainer form. The bad news is he will be a short price. You must decide how low you're willing to go.

Anyone who follows juvenile racing in New York is very familiar with Todd Pletcher. Pletcher has started 586 juveniles over the last five years, winning at a 22 percent clip.

Although his overall New York success remains at that rate, Saratoga juveniles win only 14 percent for Pletcher. That is a reflection of the superior competition at the Spa.

Pletcher has Another Silver Oak in the Sanford, a colt who won his debut at Delaware Park. Pletcher has had 13 second-time starters race at the Spa after breaking their maiden in debut. 2 of them won, with 4 others in the money. Those are respectable numbers, but reveal Pletcher is not the juvenile juggernaut many believe.

The Steve Asmussen-trained Chipshot might vie for favoritism with Bail Out the Cat. Over the last five years, Asmussen has won an astonishing 426 races with his army of juvenile sprinters. He is a strong 14 for 58 (24 percent) in graded stakes for two-year-old dirt sprinters.

Asmussen does almost as well at the Spa. 23 of those 58 graded stakes starters have come here, with 4 victories. Each of that quartet had won their previous race, another positive angle for Chipshot.

If you want to take the Asmussen stats to an even finer level, consider this. 10 of his graded stakes starters at Saratoga broke their maiden in the previous race, just as Chipshot. 2 of them won.

Now, that doesn't sound too spectacular until you add this. Another 3 of the ten missed winning by the following margins: neck, neck, and one-half length. That means Steve is less than one length from have an amazing 5 for 10 record in Spa juvenile graded stakes with last out maiden-breakers.

Think they were all short-priced? You think wrong. The odds of the 2 winners and 3 close calls were 12-1, 8-5, 7-2, 4-1, and 9-1. The quintet had 4 different riders: Robbie Albarado (2), Edgar Prado, Shaun Bridgmohan, and Julien Leparoux. Bridgmohan rides Chipshot.

Well-known Kentucky horseman Neil Howard trains Lou Brissie, half of the Dogwood Stable entry. Howard, known for conditioning superb juvenile Summer Squall at the Spa in 1989, is just 3 for his last 53 juvenile starters. That may be a function of having stock meant for classic distances.

Dallas Stewart will saddle Blue Right By, the other Dogwood entrant. Despite not having a reputation for juveniles, Stewart has a respectable 12 percent hit rate overall. His 37 Spa starters have won 4 times.

Dallas has just 2 stakes starters here over the last five years. Neither ran well.

The final Sanford entrant is trained by Tim Ice, who became a household word in New York last year for his training of triple Grade 1 winner Summer Bird.

In his brief career, Ice has 5 wins from 31 juvenile starts. He is 1 for 3 in New York, all at Belmont Park. Only 2 are last out maiden winners, and neither repeated.

If you rate these horses strictly on trainer form, Asmussen has the edge, with Violette close behind. Pletcher and Breen are solid. Remember though, a great trainer can't help a goat win a horse race.

by Nick Kling
from troyrecord.com