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12/1/2008
Jim Hurley Racing Network
Under The Shedrow
(Volume X - Number 59)
Monday, December 1, 2008
THE INNER DIRT TRACK OPENS WEDNESDAY AT AQUEDUCT...
GET READY TO SCORE...IT'S THE COYOTE LAKES PLUS TWO INSIDER PLAYS - PLUS, PLAYING THE FAVORITE - HOW IT STACKS UP!
While many bettors turn their noses up at winter racing over the Inner Dirt Track at Aqueduct, I welcome the opportunity the racing there affords me. There are so many good angles to take advantage of that I almost wish it were winter all year long. Not exactly, but the point is, only at Aqueduct, and only over the Inner Dirt Track can I put my particularly keen knowledge of tactical speed, distance changes, class maneuvers and workout patterns to work. Those are the things that make the difference between losing and winning comfortably, which is what I plan on doing between now and next March when they return to the main track.
It all gets started this Wednesday with 9 Big Races...and I'm jumping the gun with a terrific offer...
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The Coyote Cowboy
Aqueduct hosts the Coyote Lakes Stakes Hurley's got inside info on the winner!
Racing comes back at Aqueduct on Wednesday after its customary two-day breather off the holiday weekend, and there's a great card on hand. The three-year olds will be running when the Coyote Lakes Stakes goes off in Race 8, and the Hurley Network is already in the running, as its sources call in with all the information we need to make Wednesday a rich day for all our customers!
The lynchpin of the Hurley Network's success was the realization that information was power. We expanded our information base.Handicappers, researchers and inside sources were put together around the country. Now the rules were changed and WE had the edge!
With Aqueduct moving to the inner dirt track on Wednesday, that makes our edge even more important. A shift like this--at least temporarily--renders a lot of the information found in The Daily Racing Form to be outdated and puts a premium on inside information about who's best equipped to adjust.
You can get the Network's winning selection on the Coyote Lakes Stakes, plus two other winners from Aqueduct. Our Network has also tipped us off to some good exotic plays elsewhere, and you'll get our best exacta and trifecta plays coming from other tracks. On Wednesday, Hurley will be the Coyote Cowboy. Don't miss this winning plays!
Sign Up Today! Only $15!! Click Here
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While winning on Wednesday, and every other day for that matter is only a Phone Call or Mouse Click away, I'm including a few statistics below that might give you an idea about what you are up against when betting favorites at the race track. Hopefully the information will also give you an idea of just how much work you should be doing if you want to be successful.
The Favorite...Is It ALWAYS The Worst Bet?
Note - I have visited this subject in the past...but it is definitely worth revisiting...and especially with the sort of updated sample information from the last five days of racing results at Aqueduct, Philadelphia, Fair Grounds and Hollywood Park.
Before I begin this analysis regarding when or when not, if indeed it is ever to your advantage to bet the favorite, it is important to make obvious distinctions. The favorite is the favorite because the public deems it so. It is almost (I'll touch on that qualification in a moment) the most democratic process we as a free people partake in.
It is amazing how many more dynamics are involved in either betting on or against the favorite than on a second favorite, third favorite or longer priced horse. In most cases it is clear why a horse has been made the favorite. The majority of bettors figure that horse has the best form, is dropping into the right company, moving to the right surface, sent out by a well-respected and/or high percentage trainer or ridden by a strong or hot jockey. Usually more than a few of those and other factors are in play. A bettor can see why the horse is such a strong possibility...but of course so can everyone else...which is why, duh...it is the favorite. But guess what...favorites lose approximately two-thirds of the time, so maybe it isn't far-fetched to say that bettors often approach the favorite as schizophrenics. They muster support because they are afraid of losing to the favorite's strengths by betting against it and are more than wary by experience that they are just as likely to be backing a very risky proposition.
It is a very rare player that approaches handicapping with total indifference to the favorite. That rare player is usually the one that wins...unless he is a thoroughbred psychotic and denies the favorite's existence altogether and bets against the public choice as process. The latter no one can help. But when it comes to approaching the favorite both psychologically and analytically it is possible the following analysis will be of help.
Over the course of the next few editions of Under The Shedrow I am going to separate the few performance plus conditions for backing the favorite from the many negatives that identify when you should avoid any involvement at all with the public choice. In the case of avoidance you have two options...confidently bet a live value-based contender, or pass the race. As I said, I'll be getting to that over the course of continuing issues.
Fortunately, you have a third choice beyond guessing that you are on the correct value-based contender or passing...you can utilize my services. All of these dynamics are a part of my every day handicapping process, so if you want to save yourself a lot of work and not have to wait for further information you can take advantage of any of my winning service. (Click here for Information).
As for right now, the lessons begin by taking a look at the performance of the favorite at four different race tracks over the course of the last five days of racing (ending with and including Sunday, 11/30) at each. Ask a random sample of 100 bettors roaming the tarmac at any of the four tracks in the sample, or for that matter at any race track what rate of percentage the favorites there are winning at and maybe half of them will get within a couple of percentage points. Ask them to come within 10 cents (a huge margin in wagering) of what the R.O.I. for the favorite is and that 50% will be whittled down to less than 10%. Next ask them in what rare circumstances it is statistically relevant to bet a post time favorite, in what type of race, what age group, what surface, etc. and the answer will be...what the ##@%#&%# are you talking about?
Here is exactly what I'm talking about!
For the purposes of this analysis I used the last five days of racing at Aqueduct, Philadelphia Park, Fair Grounds and Hollywood Park.
There were three steps taken at each race track. I took the favorite, second favorite, and third favorite in each of the races at each track and calculated the overall performances both finish-wise and payoff-wise. After gathering the results, I then calculated what a bettor would do percentage-wise and R.O.I. (Return On Investment) wise based on a hypothetical wager on every first, second or third favorite.
Keep in mind, I have a huge, many years invested data bank of such material to draw on. I can go back fifteen years at just about any race track in the country and tell you the exact return you can expect when backing a favored, second favored or third favored two-year old on dirt, on turf, at 5 furlongs, at 7 furlongs, at two turns and everything in between. I can extract by MSW, maiden claiming, claiming, allowance and stakes distinction whether an open three-year old and up, four-year old and up, two-year old race or otherwise restricted. I hope you are getting the idea of the value of information...Jim Hurley Racing Network Information.
Let's look at the information in this particular analysis. Below I will separate the results by Race Track...and then combine the four tracks into one sample.
AQUEDUCT RACE TRACK - Wednesday, 11-26 to Sunday, 11-30
Statistics for the Favorit
- 17 of 44 favorites won for 38.6%
- The average winning payoff for the 17 favorites was $5.26
- The R.O.I. (Return On Investment) for $2 wagered on the favorite in all 44 races was $2.03
Statistics for the Second Favorite
- 6 of 44 second favorites won for 13.6%
- The average winning payoff for 6 second favorites was $9.08
- The R.O.I. for $2 wagered on the second favorite in all 44 races was $1.24
Statistics for the Third Favorite
- 9 of 44 third favorites won for 20.4%
- The average winning payoff for the 9 third favorites was $11.18
- The R.O.I. (Return On Investment) for $2 wagered on the third favorite in all 44 races was $2.29
SUMMARY - From a purely statistical perspective, the 38.6% winning favorite percentage is a bit on the high end of the national average, which usually falls at about 35%. That higher percentage allowed for the very slight +$.03 on every $2 favorite bet, which is not appreciable enough to make it a winning proposition.
Betting the second favorite didn't come close. However, the percentage of winners over the nominal 5 day period was somewhat lower than the average so the R.O.I. was also low. However, as you will see from the forthcoming statistical analysis of the other three tracks, and overall average for the four tracks, betting the second favorite is not a winning proposition.
The results for hypothetical wagering on the third favorite, however, was interesting given both the percentage of winners and the significant R.O.I. of +$0.29 for every $2 wagered (a 15% return on your money).
What is also worth noting is that of the non first-third favorites that won the remaining 12 races of the sample broke down as 5 fourth favorites, 5 fifth favorites, a sixth favorite and a tenth favorite. The average price of those long shots was $26.57. But, and it is a very large but...in order to catch one of those arbitrary longshots you'd have had to bet all the horses, and there were 406 of them in the 44 races. All non-first/second/third favorites would have reduced it to 274 horses, which means you'd have bet $548 to get back $319.00, the total returned on the 12 winners in question.
The point is that at Aqueduct during the sample period, only the third favorites produced a profit. My hunch, based on long-term study is that such a plus margin won't hold up...but you might want to keep the statistic in mind as an extra angle when it turns out that you do like a third favorite for other solid handicapping reasons than just the fact that it is the third favorite.
PHILADELPHIA PARK - Monday, 11/24 to Sunday, 11/30
Statistics for the Favorite
- 15 of 43 favorites won for 34.9%
- The average winning payoff for the 15 favorites was $5.09
- The R.O.I. (Return On Investment) for $2 wagered on the favorite in all 43 races was $1.78
Statistics for the Second Favorite
- 2 of 43 second favorites won for .05%
- The average winning payoff for the 2 second favorites was $7.40
- The R.O.I. for $2 wagered on the second favorite in all 43 races was $0.34
Statistics for the Third Favorite
- 10 of 43 third favorites won for 23.3%
- The average winning payoff for the 10 third favorites was $10.96
- The R.O.I. for $2 wagered on the third favorite in all 43 races was $2.55
SUMMARY - Based on the 43 races sample, the favorites won at right on the national average (34.9%) but the average mutuel was significantly low at $5.09. To find out if Philadelphia Park has a betting base that pounds favorites more than a base might do at another track would demand a longer sample study...which I have and you should keep. But at least we've given you a starting point.
Philadelphia Park also repeated the pattern we saw with the samples from Aqueduct. The second favorite was a woefully weak play compared to both the first favorite and the third favorite, which won at a 23% clip and paid off at an R.O.I. of +0.55 (27.5% profit) for every $2.00 wagered.
Longshots (fourth favorite or deeper) accounted for the remaining 16 of the 43 winners. The average payoff was $26.84. There were 8 fourth favorites and 3 fifth favorites that were winners. There was also a pair of sixth favorites, a seventh, eight and twelfth. Had you bet each of the fourth favorites you would have invested $86 and gotten back $135.60, which I don't have to tell you is quite a return. Did the short sample present an anomaly, or is this a vital piece of knowledge? I know the answer...if you want to know, start digging. Or of course you can take the short-cut and take advantage of all the information at my disposal...the information that goes into my...
PRIVATE PLAYERS SERVICE...Call 1-800-323-4453 to find out at No Obligation what sort of convenient program we can design for you!
It is also worth taking the time to note that for the average recreational player even a return of $1.78 for $2.00 (the payoff for the favorite) could be viewed as a plus. Long time surveys and betting pattern studies have revealed that the majority of non-professional players lose, over an extended period of time, a little below what the takeout for their particular bet is. So if the takeout on a straight bet is 17%, the number translates to $1.66 for $2.00 as a break-even point. So getting $1.78 back means the average player is actually losing $0.12 less betting every favorite to win than studies say he would under normal betting circumstances. It is a salient point when it comes to evaluating how betting and money management works, but I don't think it is what horseplayers are interested in doing.
FAIR GROUNDS - Sunday 11/23 to Sunday, 11/30
Statistics for the Favorite
- 16 of 50 favorites won for 32.0%
- The average winning payoff for the 16 favorites was $4.88
- The R.O.I. (Return On Investment) for $2 wagered on the favorite in all 50 races was $1.56
Statistics for the Second Favorite
- 14 of 50 second favorites won for 28%
- The average winning payoff for the 14 second favorites was $7.71
- The R.O.I. for $2 wagered on the second favorite in all 50 races was $2.16
Statistics for the Third Favorite
- 7 of 50 third favorites won for 14%
- The average winning payoff for the 7 third favorites was $9.57
- The R.O.I. for $2 wagered on the third favorite in all 50 races was $1.34
SUMMARY - Over the course of the 50 race sample at Fair Grounds the only marginal profit came from hypothetically betting every second favorite. In that case you would have received a tidy enough 8% profit ($2.16 for each $2.) But the numbers were significantly bad for both the favorite and third favorite. In the case of the favorite, the 16 that did win were considerably over bet. They returned $4.88 against what is a national average winning favorite payoff of around $5.35
As for the long shots, the 13 fourth and deeper favorites averaged an amazing $34.69 payoff. In fact, the 8 fourth favorites that won combined to return $105.80, which would have been a slightly above break-even from the $100 you'd have invested betting every one of them. But compared to the return for the favorite and third favorite, it would have been a nice investment.
Given how heavily bet the favorite was (remember the low $4.88 average favorite payoff) it isn't surprising the price got longer on the other end.
This may seem like much statistical gobbledygook to some, but to the discerning handicapper this sort of information paints a distinct picture of the betting patterns at individual tracks...and the last time I checked, the people that create the patterns are the ones that bet against each other.
HOLLYWOOD PARK - Wednesday, 11/26 to Sunday, 11/30
Statistics for the Favorite
- 16 of 46 favorites won for 34.8%
- The average winning payoff for the 16 favorites was $5.25
- The R.O.I. (Return On Investment) for $2 wagered on the favorite in all 46 races was $1.83
Statistics for the Second Favorite
- 9 of 46 second favorites won for 19.6%
- The average winning payoff for the 9 second favorites was $7.52
- The R.O.I. for $2 wagered on the second favorite in all 46 races was $1.47
Statistics for the Third Favorite
- 7 of 46 third favorites won for 15.2%
- The average winning payoff for the 7 third favorites was $11.20
- The R.O.I. for $2 wagered on the third favorite in all 46 races was $1.70
SUMMARY - There was no profit to be had betting any level of favorite at Hollywood Park over the course of the five day/46 race sample. However, the favorite did fall right on the national averages with a 34.8% win average and a $5.25 average payoff.
The 14 fourth favorite and deeper winners came in at a decent 30.4%. However, the average payoff of those longshots was only $18.58, which was quite below the next lowest of $26.57 from Aqueduct.
It is interesting to gauge these prices, because as I mentioned in the Fair Grounds summary, they do tell you what you are competing with in regards to betting patterns at any given track. Here at Hollywood the favorite payoff averaged much higher and the longshot payoff lower than at Fair Grounds, which means the bettors work within a much smaller range of pricing, which to me means you are up against better money managers and handicappers at Hollywood.
COMBINED FIGURES FROM ALL FOUR TRACKS
Statistics for the Favorite
- 64 of 183 favorites won for 34.9%
- The average winning payoff for the 64 favorites was $5.12
- The R.O.I. (Return On Investment) for $2 wagered on the favorite in all 183 races was $1.79
Statistics for the Second Favorite
- 31 of 183 second favorites won for 16.8%
- The average winning payoff for the 31 second favorites was $7.90
- The R.O.I. for $2 wagered on the second favorite in all 183 races was $1.34
Statistics for the Third Favorite
- 33 of 183 third favorites won for 17.5%
- The average winning payoff for the 33 third favorites was $10.78
- The R.O.I. for $2 wagered on the third favorite in all 183 races was $1.94.
The overall numbers for the favorite, as you might expect when combining the four tracks, came pretty close to the overall national averages even though it was only a one week sample. What is most interesting is that based on Return On Investment results, the hypothetical bet on all the third favorites was by far the most
rewarding. Keep in mind I have the long range numbers and breakdowns of those numbers at each track which tell me whether or not this is an anomaly. It is what I do to stay ahead of the game...and believe me this knowledge gets figured into the equation when I project favorites, second favorites, third favorites, etc prior to making my selections.
I'LL RETURN TO THESE PAGES SHORTLY WITH ANOTHER LESSON...Make sure you check back on a regular basis!
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